4Q09 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Egypt will have 81.4 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of ECMS (Mobinil) declining to 42.7% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Egypt will have 81.4 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of ECMS (Mobinil) declining to 42.7%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: ECMS - The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil); Vodafone Group Plc; Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) (For Etisalat, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Egypt provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Egypt’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Egypt include: The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil), Vodafone Group Plc, and Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Egypt's wireless market remains strong +38.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs continue declining in Egypt's mobile operator space -13.2% industry average ARPU growth 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing The industry average MOU/Sub growth of 0% in 2Q.2009

Both ECMS and Vodafone enjoyed double-digit EBITDA growth rates in the latest quarter +29.7% industry-average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Egypt to reach 81.4 million in 2013

We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Egypt will increase from 40.9 million in 2008 to 81.4 million in 2013.
ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Egypt. Our model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s number of subscribers will increase from 20.1 million in 2008 to 34.8 million in 2013.
We also expect that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone will have 30.8 million subscribers and Etisalat will have 15.9 million subscribers.

Vodafone and ECMS (Mobinil) will be losing market shares to Etisalat over the next five years

Our model predicts that ECMS's share of subscribers will decline from 49.2% in 2008 to 42.7% in 2013.
Vodafone's subscriber market share will also decline from its 43.1% in 2008 to 37.8% in 2013.
Instead, we forecast that Etisalat's subscriber market share will rise from 7.7% in 2008 to 19.5% in 2013.

ARPUs in Egypt will be declining slightly from 2009 to 2013

Our forecasting model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil) and Vodafone will see their ARPU levels decline over the next five years.
We forecast that Vodafone's ARPU level will decline from EGP 59.58 to EGP 47.65 while ECMS's ARPU declines from EGP 46.00 to EGP 41.54 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Profitability at Vodafone will improve over the next five years

We forecast that Vodafone's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 47.8% in 2008 to 53.8% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that ECMS's EBITDA margin will remain stable at approximately 47%.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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4Q09 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Egypt will have 81.4 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of ECMS (Mobinil) declining to 42.7%

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Abstract