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4Q09 Chile Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Chile will have 20.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones (Entel) taking market share of 33.7%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Movistar Chile (Telefonica S.A.)

Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA (Entel)

Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)


Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011


PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **


* Available only for Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA (Entel)

** Available only for Movistar Chile (Telefonica S.A.)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Chile provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Chilean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Chile include: Movistar Chile (Telefonica S.A.), Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA (Entel), and Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Chile's wireless market +7.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth was negative across operators in the latest quarter -11.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing in Chile +5.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA is declining at Entel and Claro Industry average EBITDA growth of -3.6% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Chile to reach 20.7 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Chile will increase from 15.9 million in 2008 to 20.7 million in 2013.
  • Movistar Chile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Chile. We expect that Movistar's subscriber base will increase from 6.88 million in 2008 to 8.99 million in 2013.
  • Also, we forecast that Entel will have 6.99 million subscribers and Claro will have 4.75 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Claro's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
  • Our model forecasts that Claro's subscriber market share will be increasing from 18.9% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2013.
  • Movistar Chile's market share will also increase slightly from 43.3% in 2008 to 43.4% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we expect that Entel will see its subscriber market share drop from 37.8% in 2008 to 33.7% in 2013.
ARPUs expected to stabilize in Chile's mobile operator space
  • Our forecasting model does not predict significant ARPU declines over the next several years. We expect that Movistar Chile's monthly ARPU level will be maintained at approximately CLP 8,300 from 2009 to 2013.
  • Entel will continue to receive higher ARPUs than Movistar Chile. We expect that Entel's monthly ARPU level will decline from CLP 10,319 in 2008 to CLP 9,394 in 2013.
  • Claro will continue to set its ARPU level lower than those of its competitors. We forecast that Claro's monthly ARPU will decline from CLP 6,724 in 2008 to CLP 5,656 in 2013.
Entel will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Movistar and Claro
  • Our model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 34.6% in 2008 to 36.0% in 2013.
  • We expect that Entel's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than those of Movistar Chile and Claro. According to our forecasting model, EBITDA margins at Movistar Chile, Entel, and Claro will be 39.8%, 40.8% and 13.8% respectively in 2013.
Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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