4Q09 Brazil Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Brazilian wireless market will have 217.7 million subscribers in 2013 with TIM Participações taking market share of 24.5%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Table of Contents

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Vivo Participacoes SA

TIM Participacoes SA

Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)

Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi)

NII Holdings, Inc.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **

* Available only for Vivo Participacoes SA, TIM Participacoes SA, and Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)

** Available only for Vivo Participacoes SA, TIM Participacoes SA, and Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi)

Abstract

• According to our forecasting model, total wireless subscribers in Brazil will increase from 152.5 million in 2008 to 217.7 million in 2013.
• Vivo will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Brazil. We forecast that Vivo's subscriber base will increase from 44.9 million in 2008 to 61.1 million in 2013.
• Our model also predicts that, by the end of 2013, TIM will have 53.2 million subscribers, Claro will have 54.3 million subscribers, and Tele Norte Leste (Oi) will have 44.7 million subscribers.

• We forecast that Vivo's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 29.5% in 2008 to 28.1% in 2013.
• The second largest operator in Brazil will be Claro with an expected subscriber market share of 25.0% in 2013.
• Our model predicts that market shares at TIM and Tele Norte Leste (Oi) will be 24.5% and 20.5% respectively in 2013.

• We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline slightly from BRL 27.92 in 2008 to BRL 26.65 in 2013.
• We expect that Vivo will see its monthly ARPU decline from BRL 28.03 in 2008 to BRL 27.15 in 2013.
• NII Holdings will continue to charge the highest levels of tariffs over the coming years. We expect that its monthly ARPU will remain at approximately BRL 124 from 2009 to 2013.

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will rise from 25.6% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2013.
• The most profitable operator in Brazil will continue to be Vivo, and we expect that Vivo's EBITDA margin will increase from 29.4% in 2008 to 38.8% in 2013.
• We also expect TIM to see its EBITDA margin increase from 22.2% to 27.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

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