4Q09 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Algerian wireless market will have 34.5 million subscribers in 2013 with Djezzy taking market share of 54.1% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Algerian wireless market will have 34.5 million subscribers in 2013 with Djezzy taking market share of 54.1%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Djezzy GSM; Mobilis; Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *; MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *; MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *; SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **; EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *; SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **; CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *; * Available only for Djezzy GSM; ** Available only for Djezzy GSM and Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Algeria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Algerian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Algeria include: Djezzy GSM, Mobilis, and Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Algeria's wireless market has turned negative -1.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels declined at Djezzy and Nedjma in the latest quarter -5.0% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Djezzy's EBITDA margin remains strong, but its EBITDA growth was negative in the latest quarter

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Algeria to reach 34.5 million in 2013

Our forecasting model predicts that total wireless subscribers in Algeria will increase from 27.1 million in 2008 to 34.5 million in 2013.
The largest operator in the country will continue to be Djezzy. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 14.1 million in 2008 to 18.6 million in 2013.
We also expect that the numbers of mobile subscribers at Mobilis and Nedjma will reach 9.6 million and 6.2 million respectively by the end of 2013.

Djezzy will continue to have above-50% subscriber market share

Our model predicts that Djezzy's subscriber market share will increase from 52.0% in 2008 to 54.1% in 2013.
We forecast that market shares of Mobilis and Nedjma will be approximately 27.9% and 18.0% in 2013.

ARPU level will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013

Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase slightly from US$ 8.23 in 2008 to US$ 8.42 in 2013.
We expect that, in 2013, monthly ARPUs at Djezzy, Mobilis, and Nedjma will be approximately US$ 12, US$ 3, and US$ 7 respectively.

EBITDA margins at Djezzy will remain strong over the next five years

Djezzy continues to be one of the most profitable operators in the region of Middle East and Africa (among the ones that we cover). We continue to believe that Djezzy will enjoy EBITDA margins of above 60% over the forecast period.
According to our model, Djezzy's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be approximately 60.7% in 2013. In comparison, we expect that Nedjma's EBITDA margin will be about 20%.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

Get Full Details About This Report >>

US: 800.298.5699

Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

About MarketResearch.com
MarketResearch.com is an online aggregator selling over 300,000 market research reports, company profiles and country profiles from over 700 research firms. Our reports will provide you with the critical business and competitive intelligence you need for strategic planning and marketing research. Coverage includes the US, UK, Europe, Asia and global markets.

2/14/2012 - 30

4Q09 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Algerian wireless market will have 34.5 million subscribers in 2013 with Djezzy taking market share of 54.1%

Table of Contents

Abstract