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Croatia Autos Report 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 10, 2009 - 31 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractCroatia’s car market remained reasonably buoyant for 2008 as a whole. This was largely due to strongsales early in the year. Confirmed 11M08 data show a rise in new passenger car sales of 7.7% year-onyear(y-o-y), up to 82,872 cars from 76,919 over the same period of 2007, according to local agencyPromocija Plus. However, the global economic downturn was clearly beginning to bite into the industry’sfortunes in H208, as monthly data began to show marked y-o-y declines in sales. Data for January andFebruary 2009 was particularly alarming, as sales of new passenger cars showed a fall of 40.9% y-o-y,down to 8,394 vehicles, according to Promocija Plus.The outlook for the year as a whole is therefore highly challenging. The Croatian economy is likely tocontract by 1.5%, according to BMI’s macroeconomic team. Private consumption has weakeneddramatically in the year thus far and is likely to continue contracting, compounded by falling exports anda consequent rise in unemployment. We therefore predict that car sales in Croatia will undergo a fall of22% y-o-y for the year. In 2010, we predict that the economy will return to positive GDP growth, drivenby a modest recovery in the eurozone. However, that recovery will be subdued, with Croatia predicted togenerate annual GDP growth of just 1.0%. As such, we predict only modest growth in car sales in 2010,3% for the year as a whole, despite the low base provided by the very low forecast for 2009 sales. Privateconsumption will remain weak, particularly in the first few months of 2010 as consumers put offpurchases of big ticket items until they are more confident about their job security and earnings prospects. However, over the long-term, car sales growth should rebound strongly from the low base created by ourforecasts for 2009-2010. With car ownership considerably short of saturation levels, we predict passengercar sales growth of 15% in 2011 and 12% in 2012. Risks to our 2010 forecast are to the downside. There is more than a slight chance that the recession indeveloped markets will persist well into 2010 (and possibly even beyond). This would likely mean acontinued recession in Croatia through much of 2010 and a continued fall in car sales for the year.In this latest Croatia Automotives Report, BMI extends its company analysis, evaluating the strengths andweaknesses of AutoZubak (supplied by Volkswagen (VW)) and Renault Hrvatska, against thebackdrop of the current global economic downturn. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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