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United States Freight Transport Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 10, 2009 - 77 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractUS railroads registered the highest bulk car loadings in five months during the week ending August 152009. In the same week, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) recorded 276,488 railcar loads forClass I railroads and a few regional rail lines, compared with 274,633 car loads the previous week. Theincrease in scrap and metal ores volumes and the strongest rail shipments of finished vehicles contributedto the increase in rail freight. The downturn looked to be easing in the US rail freight sector as the numberof cars loaded reached its highest level since April 2009. The US recession has had a marked impact onrail transportation after record years for cargo volumes in 2006 and 2007. However, recent indicatorsfrom the economy depict that the downturn is beginning to ease and this has been reflected in promisingsigns from the rail freight sector. The industry is made up of a small number of large operators withstrong capital reserves, as opposed to the trucking sector which is highly fragmented and oversuppliedwith large numbers of small firms competing for business. Whereas some observers note that the UStrucking industry has been in a downturn since 2006, when freight volumes first began to fall, thedownturn in the rail sector is much more closely linked to the economy as a whole and BMI expects asteady if moderate recovery to begin in 2010.Since our last report we have been reducing the estimated intensity of the drop in 2009 US economicactivity, although we remain less than bullish on the strength of the recovery from 2010 onwards. Wenow see GDP falling by 2.7% in 2009 - our latest figure which updates the preceding section and lastquarter’s projection of -3.3%. Looking ahead we now expect a recovery with 1.9% growth in 210 (was1.2%), followed by 2.3% in 2011 (was 3.0%). For the new five-year forecast period of 2010-2014 wenow forecast annual GDP growth to average 2.1%, a low figure but still above the 1.1% average achievedin 2005-2009 (which of course reflected the impact of the 2009 fall). While better, the operatingenvironment for the freight transport industry will remain tough. Traditionally, in developed countrieslike the US, freight traffic, measured in tonnes-km, tends to grow a little slower than GDP. Overall, wesee this pattern continuing during the forecast period, and are predicting that total freight traffic growthwill average 1.7% per annum, around 0.4pp slower than the expansion of the economy as a whole. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP fell by 2.0% in 2009, 0.7pps lesssharply than overall GDP, which we estimate to have slumped by 2.7%. For the 2010-2014 forecastperiod we expect the transport and communications sector to outpace the economy as a whole in valueterms, although by a narrow margin (note that this measure includes communications as well as freightbusinesses). It will achieve average annual growth of 2.3%, versus 2.1% for overall GDP. The total valueof transport and communications GDP will rise to US$1.166trn in nominal terms by 2013, representing6.6% of US GDP. Road haulage freight traffic grew quite strongly in 2002, and maintained a slightly slower but steadyexpansion thereafter until 2008. Prior to the economic slowdown, the constraints have been to do withroad congestion and a lack of haulage capacity, but although environmental standards will become moredemanding, we do not envisage federal action to impose major new road taxes. We expect truck cargotraffic to grow at a 1.5% annual average to 2014. In some ways, the most dramatic performance storyconcerns airfreight. Air travel in general was hit very hard by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and many of thebig airliners have not fully shaken off major financial difficulties. In 2001, airfreight traffic fell by adramatic 16.0%. Domestic air freight recovered in 2002 and subsequent years but contracted in 2005. Although the financial health of the main companies was fragile, profitability improved up until 2007: in2008 a new round of losses materialised and intensified in 2009. Across the forecast period, airfreightshould grow at an annual average of 2.2%, broadly on a par with GDP expansion. We forecast averagegrowth in rail freight traffic of 2.4%, ahead of truck freight, reflecting a small modal shift away fromexcessive reliance on the roads. Maritime freight will expand by 1.3% a year. Finally, pipeline throughputwill grow at an annual average of 1.1%. These numbers show a relatively gradual emergence from theimpact of the current recession. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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