|
|
Australia Infrastructure Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 10, 2009 - 75 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractNew DataThis quarter BMI has introduced a new data series for infrastructure and its subsectors (transport andenergy & utilities). This is an effort to address a significant deficiency in the availability of globallycomparable, infrastructure-specific indicators and forecasts across a wide range of countries. BMI's newinfrastructure data series enables users to quantify trends and growth patterns in the infrastructure sectorsof the 35 main emerging and developed markets out of the 62 countries in BMI's infrastructure service. Industry Forecasts Kevin Rudd's government in May 2009 unveiled its second budget, the centrepiece of which was anothermulti-billion-dollar provision for infrastructure projects. The budget allocated AUD22bn (US$16.5bn) foreconomic (transport and energy) and social (education and healthcare) infrastructure projects in 2009-2010. Combined, the government has pledged more than US$45bn for infrastructure for 2009-2011. Yet,despite the high level of public investment in infrastructure, the private sector has proved weaker than wehad earlier estimated. As a result, we have revised our estimates and forecasts to a moderately morebearish scenario this quarter. We now estimate that real growth in Australia’s construction industry willregister a contraction of 2.9% in 2009, compared with our previous forecast (made last quarter) of -0.8. In2010, we now believe that the sector will undergo a contraction of 2.1%, compared with our earlierforecast for real growth of 0.3%. We then expect a recovery in 2011, to a real rate of sector growth of1.6%, before a gradual acceleration in the rate of growth across the remainder of our forecast period, to arate of 5.5% in 2014. However, given the downside revision to our core forecasts this quarter, the overallbalance of risks to our forecasts is now to the upside. Project Finance And Business Environment Ratings In BMI's Project Finance Ratings, Australia scores very well, as it has a strong precedent for successfullyexecuting PPP projects. The country's overall score is 73.4, leaving it slightly behind Hong Kong, butahead of Singapore. Overall, Australia sits in second place in our regional rankings (a total of 14 countriesare included in our index). The country performs well for both key categories - ‘design and construction’and ‘commissioning and operating.’ However, in light of the trouble experienced with the Lane CoveTunnel, downside risks apply, especially for the outputs sub-score, which includes indicators such asdemand and price risk. Australia also scores well for our wider infrastructure Business EnvironmentRatings. The country sits in third place regionally, behind China and Japan, but ahead of Singapore, SouthKorea and India. As a stable, developed market, Australia scores particularly strongly for Country Riskand Market Risks. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||