Disruptive Technology in the Enterprise: Future trends, impact and vulnerabilities to substitution

Published by: Business Insights

Published: Oct. 1, 2009 - 165 Pages

Table of Contents

Disruptive Technology in the Enterprise

Executive summary

Strategies for assessing disruptive technology

NAND Flash storage

Infrastructure virtualization

Cloud computing

Open source communications devices

Chapter 1 Introduction and scope of the report

Introduction

Who is this report for?

Research methodology

Definitions

Disruptive technology

NAND Flash storage

Infrastructure virtualization

Cloud computing

Open source communications devices

Chapter 2 Strategies for assessing disruptive technology

Summary

Introduction

What is a disruptive technology?

Examples of disruptive technologies

Defining disruptive patterns

The Innovator’s Dilemma

The evolution of a disruptive technology

Characteristics of a disruptive technology

Drivers and inhibitors of disruption

Economic, regulatory and social factors

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors

Innovation and business value

Types of innovation

Business value through disruption

Strategies for predicting disruption

Impact versus adoption

Peripheral, non-disruptive innovation

Immature disruptive innovation

Maturing disruptive technology

Core, non-disruptive innovation

Disruption assessment model

1. Impact

2. Adoption

Assessing the current potential for disruption

Conclusions

Chapter 3 NAND Flash storage

Summary

Introduction

Why is it potentially disruptive?

Market context

Market opportunity

Portable devices

Data center

Drivers and inhibitors

Drivers

Inhibitors

Vendor landscape

Impact versus adoption assessment

Impact

Adoption

Impact versus adoption assessment chart

Conclusions

Chapter 4 Infrastructure virtualization

Summary

Introduction

Why virtualization is potentially disruptive

Market context

Market opportunity

Market drivers

Carbon footprint

Overcapacity and IT consolidation

IT agility

IT management and staff costs

Business continuity and agility

Inhibitors

Operational and business barriers

Automation and management challenges

Lack of interoperability

Challenges in maximizing benefits

Vendor landscape

Open source versus proprietary

VMware

Microsoft

XenSource

Citrix

Impact versus adoption assessment

Impact

Adoption

Impact versus adoption assessment chart

Conclusions

Chapter 5 Cloud computing

Summary

Introduction

Why is it potentially disruptive?

Market context

Market opportunity

Market drivers

Services-based approach to IT

‘Elasticity’

Variable costs and usage-based models

Driving down costs in enterprise IT

New IT economies

Inhibitors

Lack of trust

Service adoption and management challenges

Matching optimal delivery models

Formulating the business case

Procurement processes

Migration challenges

Vendor landscape

Hardware vendors

Portable devices

Cloud infrastructure services providers

Cloud platforms

SaaS-backed platforms

Stack platforms

Stand-alone platforms

SaaS applications developers

Impact versus adoption assessment

Impact

Adoption

Impact versus adoption assessment chart

Conclusions

Chapter 6 Open source communications devices

Summary

Introduction

Why is it potentially disruptive?

Market context

Market opportunity

Market drivers

Market inhibitors

Vendor landscape

Impact versus adoption assessment

Impact

Adoption

Impact versus adoption assessment chart

Conclusions

Chapter 7 Index

List of Figures

Figure 2.1: The evolution of a disruptive technology

Figure 2.2: Interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruption

Figure 2.3: Disruptive technology and business value

Figure 2.4: Business value applied to current innovations

Figure 2.5: Impact versus adoption - the progression of disruptive innovation

Figure 2.6: Areas of business value important to organizations - CIO respondent average ratings

Figure 2.7: The impact of innovations on enterprises in the next three years - CIO respondent average ratings

Figure 2.8: Business areas where there is most room for improvement? (% CIO respondents)

Figure 2.9: Technologies that have most transformed organizations in the last two years - CIO respondent average ratings

Figure 2.10: How organizations monitor upcoming technologies - CIO respondent average ratings

Figure 2.11: Does your organization have a future technology roadmap in place? (% CIO respondents)

Figure 2.12: How organizations test upcoming / innovative technologies before purchase - % CIO respondents

Figure 3.13: NAND Flash impact score summary

Figure 3.14: NAND Flash adoption score summary

Figure 3.15: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - NAND flash storage

Figure 4.16: Data center overcapacity

Figure 4.17: The most pressing needs for improvement in the IT department - % CIO respondents

Figure 4.18: Infrastructure virtualization impact score summary

Figure 4.19: Infrastructure virtualization adoption score summary

Figure 4.20: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - infrastructure virtualization

Figure 5.21: Cloud computing overlaps with other technology terms and trends

Figure 5.22: Cloud computing as an IT consumption model

Figure 5.23: Cloud computing - the competitive landscape

Figure 5.24: The gap between IT capacity and IT demand

Figure 5.25: Cloud computing impact score summary

Figure 5.26: Cloud computing adoption score summary

Figure 5.27: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - cloud computing

Figure 6.28: Global smartphone annual shipments (000s), 2008-2014

Figure 6.29: Open source communications devices impact score summary

Figure 6.30: Open source communications adoption score summary

Figure 6.31: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - open source communication devices

List of Tables

Table 2.1: Examples of disruptive technologies

Table 2.2: Characteristics of an early-stage disruptive technology

Table 2.3: Example of drivers and inhibitors of disruption

Table 2.4: Intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruptive technologies

Table 2.5: Different types of innovation

Table 2.6: Criteria for measuring disruptiveness of innovations

Table 2.7: Business Insights survey results - where is there most room for improvement in business areas? (% CIO respondents)

Table 4.8: Cost savings possible through server consolidation

Table 6.9: Global smartphone annual shipments by OS (000s), 2008-2014

Abstract

The motor car, mobile phones, personal computers, and so on, are all examples of disruptive technologies. There are numerous examples throughout modern business history of disruptive technologies appearing, apparently from nowhere, to threaten and ultimately displace existing technologies and the industries and vendors that grew up around them - such as the mainframe industry, communications and storage.

But disruption is rarely a consequence of technology innovation alone, rather a reflection of how existing organizations and markets deal with it. While disruptive innovation can be seen as a threat, it is also an opportunity, and indeed a necessity in the rapidly evolving world of IT and business technology.

Modern history suggests that accurate prediction of disruptive technologies is challenging, however a look at past examples can reveal important characteristics and similarities between disruptive technologies. This report aims to provide insight into the patterns and characteristics of potentially disruptive technologies and innovation trends, and provide ways of assessing vulnerability to disruption. As a result, organizations can use this insight to understood how best to avoid the threat of disruption.

Key features of this report

• A survey of CIOs in a variety of vertical industries and geographies provides insight into how innovation is managed, and where there is current vulnerability to disruption.
• A proprietary assessment model for gaining insight into how successful a potentially disruptive technology could be.
• Offers an assessment model for understanding and avoiding vulnerability to disruptive technologies.
• CIO survey reveals where there is most demand for improvements in technology performance and efficiency.
• Analysis of 4 new technologies showing which technologies could be potentially disruptive.

• a) Gain insight into where there are current vulnerabilities to technological disruption.
• b) Understand how to identify and characterise potentially disruptive technologies.
• c) Find out where CIOs believe there is the greatest need for technological improvement.
• d) Gain access to a disruption assessment model, which provides a method for assessing vulnerability to disruption.
• e) Understand which industries and organisations are potentially vulnerable to technological disruption.

• Disruptions not only displace technologies, they also fundamentally shift the balance of power in entire industries and, often, spell the end for established market leading vendors.
• There is nothing disruptive per se about any new technology; rather disruption comes from the manner in which the industry leaders and players manage it.
• The drivers and inhibitors of disruption can be broadly divided into two factors: customer need (driver), such as greater performance, lower cost, scalability, portability etc. and; barriers to entry (inhibitor), which can include unproven ROI, lack of knowledge, cost of switchover, and so on.
• Cloud computing is very likely to become a ubiquitous computing model once the challenges are dealt with, and once the issue of trust is overcome.
• Virtualization’s promise of significantly reduced energy consumption costs and hardware estate costs, combined with the IT and business agility benefits it offers, and relative ease and cost of integration and deployment means that it is very likely to see massive uptake, and become an ubiquitous technology within 10 years.

• a) What characteristics are common to disruptive technologies?
• b) How can organizations assess their vulnerability to disruption?
• c) Will open source communication devices threaten the incumbent market leaders for mobile application development?
• d) What impact will the adoption of cloud computing as an ubiquitous IT delivery system have on existing market leaders?
• e) Will NAND Flash memory replace DRAM and disk in the data center?

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