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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Nov. 5, 2009 - 82 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Food Industry SWOT
- Serbia Drink Industry SWOT
- Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Business Environment
- CEE Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Emerging Europe Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings Q1 2010
- Serbia’s Food And Drink Business Environment Rating
- BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
- BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Serbia - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
- Food
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Food Consumption
- Table: Serbia Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Value Sales Of Serbia's Confectionery Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Canned Food
- Table: Value/Volume Sales of Serbia's Canned Food Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Serbia Food And Drink Trade* Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts
- Industry Developments
- Market Overview
- Food Consumption
- Food Production
- Leading Players
- Confectionery
- Canned Food
- Trade
- Agriculture
- Dairy Production
- Sugar Production
- Organic Agriculture
- Drink
- Industry Forecast
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Serbia Alcoholic Drinks Sector - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Serbia Soft Drinks Sector - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Serbia Hot Drinks Sector - Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Industry Developments
- Market Overview
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Beer
- Spirits
- Wine
- Soft Drinks
- Hot Drinks
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Serbia - Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (As % Of Total)
- Industry Developments
- Market Overview
- Leading Players
- Mercator - Private Label As % Of Product Sales In Foreign Markets
- Table: Structure Of Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2002-2008
- Table Structure Of Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Retail Format (US$bn)
- Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2008
- Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Food And Drink
- Table: Key Players in Serbia's Food And Drink Sector (2008)
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Key Players In Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector (2008)
- Company Analysis
- Food
- Bambi
- Mondi Serbia
- Mladost-Sid
- Sunoko
- Drink
- Coca-Cola/IBP Beograd AD
- Beogradska Industrija Piva (BIP)
- Carlsberg Serbia/Pivara Celarevo
- Apatinska Pivara (AB InBev)
- Arteska International Company
- BB Minaqua
- Knjaz Miloš
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Mercator
- Veropoulos
- Delta Holding
- Metro
- Appendix
- Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000/01
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
- Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
- Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Ratings System
- Indicators
- Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
- Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting
- BMI Food And Drink Industry Glossary
- Food And Drink
- Mass Grocery Retail
- BMI Food And Drink Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sourcing
AbstractIn BMI’s Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings (BER) for Q110, Serbia slipped from ninth to12th position in the emerging Europe matrix. Unlike in the previous quarter, Serbia is now judged torepresent a less viable commercial opportunity for food and drinks companies than the Baltic states, as theeconomic situation there slowly improves. Nevertheless, our assessment of Serbia’s longer-term marketpotential is relatively optimistic, buoyed by high per capita consumption of food and beverages, as well apositive trade balance figure. Additionally, the country’s food consumption growth score is on a par withsome of the more developed regional markets, although factors such as the widespread grey economy,high unemployment and unresolved political issues will remain the main obstacles to foreign investmentin the shorter term, as will the downward pressure on food and drinks prices.
Moreover, our outlook on the country’s ability to avoid a deep and potentially protracted recession in2009 and into 2010 is relatively guarded. In fact, risks related to short-term financing and economicgrowth are considered particularly problematic, although large players based in other parts of the formerYugoslavia - such as the leading Slovenian mass grocery retail (MGR) operator Mercator - seem tohave no qualms about continuing their investment into the country. This should also provide them with acompetitive edge over new international players on the scene, with many international conglomerateslikely to wait until the country’s economic situation shows stronger signs of recovery. Indeed, havingannounced its intention to enter the Serbian MGR market in 2009 a while ago, Spar Austria is nowchoosing to ‘observe’ the situation, with no store openings planned during the current year.
Some European majors are, however, already recognising the longer term potential of the Serbian foodand drinks market. To this end, in late September 2009, French dairy behemoth Groupe Danone waspoised to close in on two of the country's leading dairy companies owned by UK-based Salford Fund,namely Mlekara Subotica and Imlek, the market leader that also boasts a strong export portfolio.
Danone already boasts a strong emerging Europe portfolio (the region accounted for 15% of group salesin FY08). In addition to topping the much-sought-after Polish market, Danone also leads in the Balkanmarkets of Bulgaria and Romania, with Serbia to provide a complementary investment.
Around the same time, however, Belgian brewing behemoth Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B InBev) wasreportedly in talks with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners over the sale of its Central andEastern European (CEE) operations. CVC Capital Partners actually submitted a EUR1.57bn bid, althoughthis falls short of the EUR2bn asking price. The decision was made due to a steady worsening ofconditions for brewers across the CEE region since the start of 2009 - severe economic stress has forced asharp alteration in consumer spending, which continues to profoundly affect the non-essential beveragecategory. What is more, with populations declining or remaining flat in many of the region's markets, thelong-term demographic outlook does not favour brewers, particularly those that are not market leaders.
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