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Turkey Agribusiness Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 5, 2009 - 42 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Turkish economic outlook for 2010 is predicted to be much more favourable than the previous year,with real year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth of 3.4% forecast by BMI. In addition to the continued effortsof the Turkish government to reform the regulatory framework for EU accession and an imminent pick upin export demand, 2010 will start a notable production spike across the agricultural sphere. The TurkeyAgribusiness Report Q110 focuses on these dynamics and their implications for sector growth in the newoutlook period up to 2014.As we progress through the outlook period we expect grains production to increase markedly particularlycorn, which we forecast to expand by 40% by 2014. Production will benefit from increased investmentand more favourable weather - some relief from the drought that has ravaged the region, including Syriaand Iraq. Sugar, rice and livestock are other categories where double-digit growth is forecast to 2014 andemphasises Turkey's reputation as one of the most agriculturally diverse and productive nations. Despite positive growth largely predicted forecast to flourish across the board in production, the outlookfor consumption is slightly less bullish. We predict consumption in most categories to lag productiongrowth through to 2014 due to a slower bounce in consumer confidence. Only in the consumption ofbarley and fresh milk is demand expected to outweigh supply to the end of the outlook period. As the outlook progresses we can expect to see a higher level of investment in agriculture, particularly asthe industry harmonises the regulatory framework in preparation for EU membership. Although thegovernment has been slowly extracting itself from grain marketing since the 1990s in line with itsobjectives of market liberalisation and privatisation, farmers still continue to receive support throughinput subsidies, as well as below-market interest rates for loans and fertiliser. While most wheat is traded privately, the market is still regulated through the Turkish Grain Board(TMO), which sets the annual procurement prices for all grains. The TMO then buys grains at these pricesfrom producers who are unable to obtain a higher price on the open market. Through its position the TMOmonopolises the import of certain key commodities, which it uses as a mechanism to help controldomestic prices. Turkey's EU accession ambitions make this type of intervention increasingly untenableand we expect an easing of such measures as we progress through to 2014. Regarding the growing sentiment for organic produce among consumers in the developed world, Ministerfor Agriculture Mehment Mehdi Eker says Turkey has roughly 1mn hectares available for organicfarming, which will lend itself well to said method of farming as the global recession dissipates. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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