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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q1 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 5, 2009 - 67 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Agricultural SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Indonesia Coffee Outlook
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production & Consumption
Indonesia Dairy Outlook
Table: Indonesia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Cocoa Outlook
Indonesia Cocoa Outlook
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production & Consumption
Indonesia Sugar Outlook
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Grains Outlook
Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Livestock Outlook
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Rice Outlook
Table: Indonesia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Sales, selected food sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Confectionary Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Trade
Indonesia Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format, 2006-2013
Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast
Global Oil Palm Outlook
Table: Global Oil Palm Production & Consumption
Table: Global Oil Palm Production & Consumption
Industry Trend Analysis
Chinese Investment In Africa
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

Moving into the final quarter of 2009, there were a number of threats hanging over Indonesia'sagricultural sector. Talk at the beginning of the year of restarting significant rice exports has becomemore and more muted as the year has progressed. The chief concern for Indonesia's agricultural plannershas been the brewing El Niño. The phenomenon brings unusually dry weather to the Indonesianarchipelago.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in an October 2009 bulletin said itexpected the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions to reach at least moderate strengthpotentially growing into a strong El Niño in the later months of 2009 and into 2010. The agency also saidthat Indonesia could expect below average rain in the final quarter of 2009.

The expected water shortages will dampen the large expansion in rice previously forecast for 2010. Thegovernment had been hoping for a harvest of up to 42mn tonnes, up from 38.30mn in 2009. This nowseems highly unlikely. We are currently still forecasting a small rise in production for 2010, though warnthat risks are firmly to the downside. The government has earmarked IDR1trn (US$105mn) to prevent arapid rise in the price of rice and to help families affected by the drought. Agricultural agencies have alsobeen encouraging farmers to plant drought-resistant rice varieties.

Though a phenomenon such as the ENSO will always have an impact on agriculture, the affects areexacerbated by the poor infrastructure in much of Indonesia. Further investment in water storage andirrigation is needed to allow farmers to cope better with climatic changes. If the worst fears about climatechange prove well founded, this will become even more important in coming years.

While nothing can be done to prevent the El Niño developing, Indonesia's farmers are also worried aboutman-made threats to their livelihood. In the provisional 2010 budget, the government has laid down plansto cut the subsidy for fertilizer by a third from IDR17.5trn to IDR11.3trn. The government is alsoplanning to increase the amount of fertilizer it subsidises, meaning the smaller budget will also be morethinly spread. This will lead to a large jump in the price of fertilizer and could see farmers cutting back onthe amount they use. This could have an impact on crop yields across the board.

The Indonesian government is burdened with a large bill for subsidies on products such as fuel and food.Cuts to subsidies are hot political issues. Though we agree with the government that subsidies may needtrimming, we believe the proposed cut to be somewhat drastic. A more gradual reduction would allowfarmers time to adjust production techniques to deal with the rising cost of inputs.

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