China Agribusiness Report Q1 2010 : Market Research Report

China Agribusiness Report Q1 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 5, 2009 - 70 Pages

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; China Agricultural SWOT; China Political SWOT; China Economic SWOT; China Business Environment SWOT; Industry Forecast Scenario; China Livestock Outlook
Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade: China Rice Outlook
Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade: China Grains Outlook
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade: China Sugar Outlook
Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade: China Dairy Outlook
Table: China Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade: China Soybean Outlook
Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade: Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers: Commodity Price Analysis; Corn
Table: Corn: Rice
Table: Rice: Soy
Table: Soybean: Wheat
Table: Wheat: Softs Update; Cocoa
Table: Cocoa: Coffee
Table: Coffee: Milk
Table: Milk: Sugar
Table: Sugar: Downstream Supply Chain Analysis; Industry Forecast Scenario - Drink; Hot Drinks; China Hot Drinks Value Sales (CNYmn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013; Alcoholic Drinks; China Alcoholic Drinks Production and Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013; Soft Drinks; China Soft Drink Sales by Subsector -- Historical & Forecast Sales Data. 2006-2013; Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail; Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: China MGR Retail Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts: Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: China - Economic Activity: Industry Forecast; Global Rapeseed Outlook
Table: Global Rapeseed Production & Consumption
Table: Global Rapeseed Production & Consumption: Global Cotton Outlook
Table: Global Cotton Production & Consumption
Table: Global Cotton Production & Consumption: Global Oil Palm Outlook
Table: Global Oil Palm Production & Consumption
Table: Global Oil Palm Production & Consumption: Industry Trend Analysis; Chinese Investment In Africa; BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

As with much of the rest of East Asia, China faced extreme weather conditions in the second half of 2009.A long drought across the important grain areas of the Northeast region will likely see output of corn,China's most significant grain, drop in 2010 as yields fall due to water shortages. Soybean production,also based in the Northeast, will suffer too. The Northeast has not been the only area to suffer from watershortages. On the other side of the country in Guangxi, another important crop, sugar cane, has been hitby dry weather and we have revised down our forecasts for 2010 sugar output. While the Northeast hasbeen drying out, China's south east coastline has been lashed by tropical storms, though these will likelyhave little impact on total agricultural output.

High grain stocks carried over from the bumper harvest of 2009 when the government increasedpurchasing to support prices will mean that despite the drought, there will be no shortages of grain crops.This is welcome news for the livestock and dairy sectors both of which are recovering from crisis.

China's pork producers suffered badly in the first half of 2009 from a combination of oversupply, weakdemand and the H1N1 influenza (swine flu) outbreak. Since the start of H209, however, a rapid rise inpork prices has re-energised the sector. The recovery was started by government intervention to buy upfrozen pork supplies to help support prices. This has come along with a fall in pig numbers as farmersreduce their herds. Together, this saw prices climb by almost 20% from June to September. This risingtrend will see production grow strongly going into 2010, which ultimately should prevent prices reachingthe peaks seen in 2008. In 2009, we estimate pork production to have climbed above the level seen in2006 before the disastrous outbreak of blue ear pig disease.

The dairy sector has also been recovering strongly following the melamine adulteration scandal of 2008.Demand for Chinese dairy products has returned and most of the country's dairy majors have moved backinto profit following the losses recorded in 2008. The return of confidence in the sector can be seen in theflurry of activity from overseas private equity firms through the middle of 2009. In June, US privateequity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co invested in Anhui-based Ma Anshan Modern Farming(Modern Dairy). The firm said its investment would help Modern Dairy to rapidly increase the number oflarge-scale farms it operates. This was followed in July by China National Oils, Foodstuffs and CerealsCorp and Hopu Fund's purchase of 20% of Mengniu, and in September another US private equity firm,the Carlyle Group, bought a 17.3% stake in infant formula maker Guangdong Yashili Group.

These deals are a sign of the potentially huge opportunities that will open up in the coming years tosupply food products to China's vast population. While much of the population still lives in relativepoverty, the large and growing middle class will demand an increasingly varied and sophisticated diet,especially as their exposure to worldwide consumption trends increases. This will drive demand for meatand dairy products and a wider range of processed foodstuffs.

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China Agribusiness Report Q1 2010

Table of Contents

Abstract