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India Defence and Security Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 2, 2009 - 75 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Security SWOT
India Defence Industry SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
India’s Security Ratings
Terrorism Risk Ratings
Physical Safety Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
North And South Asia Security Overview
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Religion
Insurgency
Assam
Nagaland
Maoists
Refugees
External Security Situation
International Terrorism
Border Disputes
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ’000)
International Deployments
Table: India Deployments
Joint Exercises
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Indian Nuclear-Capable Delivery Vehicles
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: India’s Armed Forces, 2005-2013 (’000 personnel)
Table: India’s Armed Forces, 2005-2013 (’000 personnel)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Company Profiles
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
Ordnance Factories (OF)
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL)
BAE-HAL Software Ltd
Rolls-Royce International
Honeywell International
Country Snapshot: India Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2001
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources

Abstract

The unexpectedly strong mandate given to the ruling United Progressive Alliance government in theApril-May 2009 national elections is a considerable positive for political stability and offers potential foreconomic reform. Nonetheless, the new government faces a daunting task to support the economy, boostdomestic security and improve relations with Pakistan and the US.

The Indian National Congress (INC) now has the opportunity to implement the economic reform agendaof Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. However, more immediate priorities, such as the implementationand subsequent rollback of fiscal stimulus measures, the need to enforce government control in Naxaliterebel-controlled areas and to manage relations with Pakistan and the US will most likely take precedencein the short term, as the major commitment to troop deployment against the Naxalites showed inSeptember.

The US and India finalised a defence agreement that allows the sale of sophisticated US arms to India asUS Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited New Delhi on July 20. The move will enable India tomodernise its military, something that is likely to cause consternation across the border in Pakistan. TheUS has only recently made headway in convincing Pakistan to deploy a larger share of its armed forcesfrom the border with India to fight Islamist insurgents in its northwest provinces. This development couldnow be reversed as India is expected to spend more than US$30bn on arms over the next five years.

Prime Minister Singh and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari met on the sidelines of the Shanghai CooperationOrganisation (SCO) summit in Russia in June, where they agreed to arrange a meeting betweentheir foreign secretaries. Although we view these initial talks - the first since the Mumbai attacks inNovember 2008 - as a positive sign towards better relations, we do not foresee any significantimprovements in bilateral ties anytime soon, at least until Islamabad is able to present evidence that it isbringing Kashmiri separatists operating from its territory under control

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