|
|
China Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 3, 2009 - 101 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractChina presents perhaps the most complex strategic environment anywhere in the world, with internal andexternal pressures on a number of levels. Even so, China, like almost everywhere else, faces a landscapedominated by economic considerations for the foreseeable future.In a sign that suggests that Beijing’s stimulus efforts are increasingly taking effect, China’s real GDPstaged an impressive rebound in Q209 to expand by 7.9% y-o-y, compared with 6.1% growth registeredin the previous quarter. We are now expecting real output to expand by 8.1% this year and by 8.8% in2010. Underscoring our more bullish view on China, industrial production maintained its upward trend in June,rising by 10.7% y-o-y following an 8.9% increase in May, while consumption levels also showed amarked improvement. Total retail sales in the January-June period grew by 15.0% y-o-y to reachCNY5.9bn (US$859.4bn), which if adjusted for price factors, was actually 16.6% greater than theprevious year. On the other hand, exports continue to tumble at a rapid rate, with outbound shipments falling by 21.4%y-o-y in June (which pushed the year-to-date growth figure to -21.7%) as external demand remainedsluggish. Although we are anticipating trade volumes to pick up in H209, we are anticipating this reboundto be gentle, and as such expect the export sector to remain under pressure, meaning that deflationarypressures are likely to persist. Internally, political pressures are continuing to grow. With no outlet for citizens to voice their grievancesunder one-party rule, the threat of further violence remains firmly on the cards, particularly given thecountry’s ongoing economic woes. The violent riot that took place in the province of Xinjiang on July 5has once again underscored the rising threat of political instability in China. One of the biggest - though least discussed - ‘wild cards’ that could rear its head is dramatic politicalupheaval in China. When real GDP growth was in excess of 10%, Chinese citizens largely refrained fromgreater calls for democracy and overlooked the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s shortcomings in returnfor the rising prosperity generated by stellar economic expansion. However, with growth having slowedsharply, the Chinese populace is no longer willing to be so forgiving. Change can perhaps be deferred, butnot indefinitely. China has developed an enormous defence industry, with approximately 2.5mn to 3mn employeesengaged in top-tier enterprises. A major reform policy has been pursued since the 1980s in a bid to‘convert’ the monolithic, state-run military-industrial complex by producing civilian products through thedefence industry. The conversion is intended to improve the efficiency of the industry and make use ofredundant facilities, as well as aid China’s military modernisation programme. The Commission onScience Industry and Technology for National Defence (COSTIND) has stated that there are 450 defenceproduction lines now producing civilian goods. The modernisation is particularly significant, as the military doctrine has shifted away from the Maoist‘people’s war’ towards power projection. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||