4Q09 United States Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: USA will have 352.5 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Verizon Wireless taking 36.1% market share : Market Research Report

4Q09 United States Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: USA will have 352.5 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Verizon Wireless taking 36.1% market share

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Verizon Wireless (Joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc.); AT&T Mobility LLC; Sprint Nextel Corporation; T-Mobile USA, Inc.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the United States provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the US wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for the United States include: Verizon Wireless (Joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc.), AT&T Mobility LLC, Sprint Nextel Corporation, and T-Mobile USA, Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in the US wireless market+5.2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth continues to be negative-1.6% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizingThe industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of -0.8% in 2Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth at Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility continues+1.1% industry-average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in the United States to reach 352.5 million in 2013

We forecast that total wireless subscribers in USA will increase from 270.3 million in 2008 to 352.5 million in 2013.
Verizon Wireless will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country. Our model predicts that Verizon Wireless's subscriber base will increase to 127.4 million in 2013.
On the other hand, we forecast that AT&T Mobility will have 111.9 million subscribers and T-Mobile will have 43.1 million subscribers in 2013.

In spite of rapid growth of smaller operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility will see their subscriber market shares increase over the next five years

Our forecasting model predicts that Verizon Wireless's market share will increase from 31.5% to 36.1% and AT&T Mobility's market share will increase from 28.5% to 31.7% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
We also expect that T-Mobile's market share will remain at approximately 12.2% over the next five years while Sprint-Nextel's market share declines dramatically.

Industry average ARPU level in the United States to decline slightly over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013

We expect that the industry-average monthly ARPU level will fall from $51.29 in 2008 to $51.09 in 2013.
However, the overall ARPU decline is largely driven by smaller operators. We expect that Verizon's monthly ARPU level will increase from $50.26 in 2008 to $51.25 in 2013.

Verizon Wireless will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability in the US wireless market

Our model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be declining from 32.4% in 2008 to 29.8% in 2013.
On the other hand, we forecast that Verizon Wireless's EBITDA margin will improve from 39.0% in 2008 to 42.0% in 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 United States Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: USA will have 352.5 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Verizon Wireless taking 36.1% market share

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Abstract