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4Q09 United Kingdom Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in the UK to reach 83.3 million in 2013 with Telefónica O2 taking a market share of 29.5%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Vodafone Group Plc
Telefónica O2 UK Limited
Orange
T-Mobile (UK) Limited
Hutchison 3G UK Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Not available for Hutchison 3G UK Limited

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the United Kingdom provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the UK wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for the United Kingdom include: Vodafone Group Plc, Telefónica O2 UK Limited, Orange, T-Mobile (UK) Limited, and Hutchison 3G UK Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down gradually in the UK wireless market+3.7% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels are stabilizing in the United Kingdom-2.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing The industry average MOU/Sub growth of 0.5% in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at Vodafone, Orange, and T-Mobile in the latest quarterThe industry average EBITDA growth of -7.1% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in the UK to reach 83.3 million in 2013
  • Our forecasting model predicts that total mobile subscriber accounts in the United Kingdom will increase from 76.4 million in 2008 to 83.3 million in 2013.
  • The actual data from 2008 indicates that Telefónica O2 UK has replaced Vodafone as the largest mobile operator in the UK during the second quarter of 2008. Our forecasting model predicts that Telefónica O2 UK will continue to serve more subscribers than Vodafone over the next five years.
  • We forecast that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone and Telefónica O2 UK will be serving 17.7 million and 24.5 million subscribers respectively.
Vodafone will be losing subscriber market share over the next five years
  • According to our forecasting model, Vodafone's share of total subscribers will decline from 25.1% in 2008 to 21.3% in 2013.
  • We also forecast that T-Mobile's market share will fall from 22.0% in 2008 to 18.9% in 2013.
  • In contrast, we predict that Telefónica O2 UK's subscriber market share will increase from 25.5% to 29.5%, Orange's market share will increase from 20.9% to 21.1%, and Hutchison 3G's market share will increase from 6.5% to 9.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in the United Kingdom to be stable from 2009 to 2013
  • Our model does not forecast significant changes in the ARPU levels over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013. The expected average ARPU level in the UK in 2013 is £22.13 per month.
  • We expect that Vodafone's monthly ARPU will decline from £21.78 in 2008 to £20.77 in 2013 while that of Telefónica O2 UK declines from £23.85 in 2008 to £22.51 in 2013.
  • Hutchison 3G which has the highest ARPU level in the country will also see its monthly ARPU decline from £28.72 in 2008 to £23.98 in 2013.
Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be declining over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013
  • We expect that the industry average level of profitability measured by EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will remain in the range of 21% - 23% over the next five years.
  • At the operator level, our model predicts that Vodafone's EBITDA margin will decrease from 23.7% in 2008 to 21.7% in 2013. Telefónica O2's EBITDA margin will also be decreasing over the next several years to reach 20.1% in 2013, according to our model.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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