4Q09 Ukraine Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Ukraine to reach 60.7 million in 2013 with UMC's market share declining to 31.6% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Ukraine Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Ukraine to reach 60.7 million in 2013 with UMC's market share declining to 31.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications); Kyivstar GSM; Astelit LLC; URS (VimpelCom)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *; MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **; MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **; MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **; SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *; VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **; SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD); * Available only for UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications); ** Available only for UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications), Kyivstar GSM, and URS (VimpelCom)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Ukraine provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Ukrainian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Ukraine include: UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications), Kyivstar GSM, Astelit LLC, and URS (VimpelCom). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth turned negative in the latest quarter-0.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth at Kyivstar in the latest quarterThe industry-average ARPU growth of -2.9% in 2Q.2009

EBITDA is declining in the Ukrainian wireless market

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in Ukraine to reach 60.7 million in 2013

Given the latest quarter numbers, our forecasting model now predicts that the number of total wireless subscribers in Ukraine will change from 59.1 million in 2008 to 60.7 million in 2013.
Kyivstar will continue to have the highest number of subscribers among other operators. We expect that Kyivstar will have 24.7 million subscribers in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that UMC will have 19.2 million subscribers and Astelit will have 12.3 million subscribers in 2013.

Kyivstar and UMC will be losing market shares to Astelit and URS over the next five years

We forecast that Astelit's subscriber market share will increase from 18.0% to 20.4% and URS (VimpelCom)'s market share will increase from 4.6% to 5.6% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Although Kyivstar will continue to maintain its subscriber market share lead, we expect that Kyivstar's market share will decline from 41.6% in 2008 to 40.7% in 2013. We also expect that UMC's market share will decline from 34.8% in 2008 to 31.6% in 2013.

ARPU levels in Ukraine will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013

Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain in the range of UAH 35 - UAH 37 over the next several years.
We expect that URS (VimpelCom) will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in Ukraine at UAH 40.97 in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that the largest operator, Kyivstar, will see its monthly ARPU decline from UAH 44.38 in 2008 to UAH 35.21 in 2013.

Kyivstar's EBITDA margin will remain above 59% over the next several years

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be in the range of 43% - 46% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
We expect that Kyivstar's EBITDA margin will remain strong at approximately 59% from 2009 to 2013.
Our model forecasts that UMC's EBITDA margin will be lower at 44.8% in 2013, slightly down from 45.2% in 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 Ukraine Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Ukraine to reach 60.7 million in 2013 with UMC's market share declining to 31.6%

Table of Contents

Abstract