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4Q09 Turkey Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Turkey will have 74 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Turkcell's market share declining to 48.9%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell)
Vodafone Group Plc
Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom))
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
* Available only for Turkcell
** Available only for Turkcell and Avea (Turk Telekom)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Turkey provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Turkish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Turkey include: Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell), Vodafone Group Plc, and Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom)). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Turkey has slowed down in the last four quarters-0.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Monthly ARPUs are increasing in the Turkish wireless market+1.7% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase across operators in Turkey The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +38.7% in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at Turkcell and Avea in the latest quarter-22.0% industry-average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to increase to 74 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Turkey will increase from 66.4 million in 2008 to 74.0 million in 2013.
  • Turkcell will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 36.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
  • On the other hand, given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that Vodafone will have 18.4 million and Avea (Turk Telekom) will have 19.3 million wireless subscriber accounts in 2013.
Avea (Turk Telekom) will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
  • We expect that Avea's market share will increase from 19.1% to 26.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • On the other hand, our forecasting model now predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline from 25.2% in 2008 to 24.9% in 2013, and Turkcell's market share will decline from 55.7% in 2008 to 48.9% in 2013.
ARPU levels in Turkey will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013
  • Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain in the range of TRY 16 - TRY 17 over the next five years.
  • At the operator level, we forecast that Turkcell will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country at TRY 18.55 per month in 2013.
  • We expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone and Avea will be approximately TRY 11.55 and TRY 15.78 respectively in 2013.
Turkcell's EBITDA margins will remain much higher than those of Avea over the next several years
  • We forecast that Turkcell's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain at approximately 36.5% from 2009 to 2013.
  • Although we expect that Avea's EBITDA margin will be improving over the next several years, it will still be approximately 16.6% in 2013, according to our model.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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