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4Q09 Thailand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Thailand will have 81.8 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Advanced Info Service's market share declining to 42.3%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited
Total Access Communication Public Company Limited
True Corporation Public Company Limited
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited (For Hutchison, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR **
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR **
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) **
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
* Available only for Advanced Info Service
** Available only for Advanced Info Service and Total Access Communication

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Thailand provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Thailand’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Thailand include: Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, Total Access Communication Public Company Limited, True Corporation Public Company Limited, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Wireless subscriber growth in Thailand continues to be strong, but it is slowing down+10.3% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels continue declining in Thailand -13.6% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined across operators in the latest quarter-8.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at Advanced Info Service and Total Access Communication continuesIndustry average EBITDA growth was -5.3% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Thailand to rise to 81.8 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscriber accounts in Thailand will increase from 62.6 million in 2008 to 81.8 million in 2013.
  • Advanced Info Service will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 34.6 million wireless subscribers in 2013.
  • Total Access Communication will remain in second place with 24.7 million subscribers in 2013, and True will remain in third place with 21.3 million subscribers in 2013.
Advanced Info Service will be losing its market share to True over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that Advanced Info Service will see its subscriber market share decline from 44.5% in 2008 to 42.3% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that True's market share will increase from 24.0% in 2008 to 26.1% in 2013.
  • Total Access Communication's share of total subscribers will remain at approximately 30% over the next five years.
  • We expect that Hutchison's market share in Thailand will remain in the range of 1.2% - 1.6% over the next five years.
ARPUs in Thailand will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
  • We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU level in Thailand will decline from THB 230 in 2008 to THB 187 in 2013.
  • Our model predicts that the average monthly ARPU will be THB 217 for Advanced Info Service, and THB 210 at Total Access Communication in 2013.
  • On the other hand, True's ARPU will remain much lower, declining from THB 131 in 2008 to THB 113 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will decline over the next several years
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 35.1% in 2008 to 27.3% in 2013.
  • Advanced Info Service will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability (EBITDA margin) in Thailand, but its EBITDA margin will still decline from 42.2% in 2008 to 33.9% in 2013.
  • Total Access Communication's margin will fall from 30.8% in 2008 to 22.5% in 2013.
  • True's margin will fall from 18.8% in 2008 to 16.1% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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