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4Q09 Switzerland Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Switzerland will have 11 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Swisscom maintaining its subscriber market share of 61.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Swisscom AG
Orange Communications SA
Sunrise Communications AG
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR **
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR **
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) **
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
* Available only for Swisscom
** Available only for Swisscom and Orange Communications
*** Available only for Swisscom and Sunrise Communications

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Switzerland provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Swiss wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Switzerland include: Swisscom AG, Orange Communications SA, and Sunrise Communications AG. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Stable subscriber growth continues in Switzerland's wireless market+7.2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth rates are negative across operators in Switzerland's mobile operator space-7.2% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber is stabilizingIndustry average MOU/Sub of 113 minutes per month in 2Q.2009

EBITDA declines at Swisscom and Sunrise Communications have stopped in the latest quarter+0.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Switzerland to reach 11.0 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Switzerland will increase from 8.68 million in 2008 to 11.0 million in 2013.
  • Swisscom will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country with 6.80 million subscribers in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that Orange Communications will have 1.96 million subscribers and Sunrise Communications will have 2.29 million wireless subscriber accounts by the end of 2013.
We do not expect significant changes in market shares over the next five years
  • Swisscom will continue to provide services to the majority of the Swiss mobile subscribers. We expect that Swisscom's subscriber market share will remain in the range of 61% - 62% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • Our model forecasts that Sunrise Communications will have a market share of 20.7% and Orange Communications will have a 17.7% market share in 2013.
ARPUs in Switzerland will continue to decrease from 2009 to 2013
  • Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU (Average Revenue per User) will decrease from CHF 57.21 to CHF 44.18 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • At the operator level, we expect that Swisscom's monthly ARPU will decline from CHF 51.00 in 2008 to CHF 44.25 in 2013.
  • In comparison, we expect that Orange's ARPU will decrease from CHF 61.74 in 2008 to CHF 48.31 in 2013.
  • Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that Sunrise will lower its ARPU level significantly over the next several years. Our model predicts that Sunrise's monthly ARPU will fall from CHF 58.00 in 2008 to CHF 40.43 in 2013.
Profitability will remain stable in Switzerland's mobile operator space over the next several years
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain at approximately 44% from 2009 to 2013.
  • Swisscom will continue to enjoy much higher EBITDA margins than Sunrise Communications. We think that Swisscom's EBITDA margin will remain above 48% while Sunrise's EBITDA margin stays in the range of 27% - 29% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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