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4Q09 Sweden Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: TeliaSonera's market share will be declining to 45.4% by the end of 2013 as Hutchison's market share increases in the Swedish wireless market

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
TeliaSonera AB
Tele2 AB
Telenor Sverige AB
Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited (For Hutchison, only the subscriber data is available)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Available only for TeliaSonera AB

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Sweden provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Swedish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Sweden include: TeliaSonera AB, Tele2 AB, Telenor Sverige AB, and Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Wireless subscriber growth in Sweden is slowing down+8.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs are declining across operators in the Swedish mobile operator space -4.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber growth remains positive+2.4% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

TeliaSonera enjoyed a high EBITDA growth rate in the latest quarter +1.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

The Swedish wireless market will have 13.8 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Sweden will increase from 11.4 million in 2008 to 13.8 million in 2013.
  • TeliaSonera will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 6.28 million subscribers in 2013.
  • Tele2 will remain in second place with its 3.61 million subscribers while Telenor with 2.28 million will remain in third place in 2013. The fourth operator, Hutchison will continue to grow rapidly, with an expected subscriber base of 1.66 million accounts in 2013.
Market shares of TeliaSonera and Tele2 will be declining as Hutchison's share increases over the next five years
  • According to our forecasting model, TeliaSonera's subscriber market share will decline from 46.6% to 45.4% and Tele2's subscriber market share will decline from 29.3% to 26.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • In contrast, we expect that Hutchison will see its market share increase from 7.4% in 2008 to 12.0% in 2013.
  • We forecast that Telenor's market share will remain stable at around 16.5% over the next several years.
ARPU levels in Sweden will be declining over the next several years
  • Our model predicts that the three major wireless operators - TeliaSonera, Tele2, and Telenor - will all see their ARPUs decline over the next several years.
  • According to our model, TeliaSonera's monthly ARPU will fall from SEK 190 to SEK 169, Tele2's ARPU will fall from SEK 197 to SEK 196, and Telenor's ARPU will fall from SEK 279 to SEK 212 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
EBITDA margins to remain stable in the Swedish wireless market from 2009 to 2013
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 30% - 31% over the next several years.
  • TeliaSonera will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Tele2 and Telenor in Sweden. We expect that EBITDA margins at TeliaSonera, Tele2, and Telenor will be approximately 37.0%, 31.2%, and 16.3% respectively in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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