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4Q09 Spain Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 63.9 million mobile subscribers in Spain in 2013 with Telefónica's market share declining to 42.3%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Telefónica de España, S.A.U
Vodafone Group Plc
Orange Communications SA
Xfera Moviles S.A.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR *
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Not available for Xfera Moviles S.A.

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Spain provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Spanish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Spain include: Telefónica de España, S.A.U, Vodafone Group Plc, Orange Communications SA, and Xfera Moviles S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Wireless subscriber growth is slowing down in Spain+4.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels continue decreasing in Spain-11.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing-6.7% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at Telefónica, Vodafone, and Orange in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth was -12.4% in 1Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

There will be 63.9 million mobile subscribers in Spain in 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Spain will increase from 52.5 million in 2008 to 63.9 million in 2013.
  • Telefónica will continue to be the largest operator in the country with its subscriber base increasing to 27.1 million by the end of 2013.
  • Vodafone will continue to be the second largest operator in the country. Given the latest quarter numbers, we now forecast that Vodafone's subscriber base will increase from 16.5 million in 2008 to 20.3 million in 2013.
  • Our model predicts that the numbers of subscribers at Orange and Xfera will be approximately 12.8 million and 3.7 million respectively by the end of 2013.
Telefónica's subscriber market share will be declining over the next several years
  • Although Telefónica will continue to lead Spain in market shares, we predict that its subscriber market share will decline from 45.0% in 2008 to 42.3% in 2013.
  • Also, we predict that Orange's share will fall from 21.7% in 2008 to 20.0% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, Vodafone's share of total subscribers will increase from 31.5% in 2008 to 31.8% in 2013. We expect that Xfera's subscriber market share will also be increasing over the next five years to reach 5.8% in 2013.
Monthly ARPUs will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
  • We think that monthly ARPUs will continue to decline across operators in Spain. Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from €29.62 in 2008 to €19.36 in 2013.
  • However, we expect that Data ARPU will be increasing. We predict that the industry average monthly Data ARPU will increase from €4.74 in 2008 to €5.18 in 2013.
  • Given the latest data, we expect that Telefónica's monthly Data ARPU will increase from €5.23 in 2008 to €6.49 in 2013.
EBITDA margins to improve at Xfera
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will rise from 36.4% in 2008 to 39.8% in 2013. Telefónica's EBITDA margin will continue to remain in the range of 44% - 45% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • Xfera's EBITDA margin in 2008 was -63.0% due to a negative EBITDA figure. However, we think that this will improve over the next five years. We forecast that Xfera's EBITDA margin will turn positive in 2010.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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