4Q09 South Korea Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: South Korea will have 55.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of SK Telecom increasing to 50.6% : Market Research Report

4Q09 South Korea Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: South Korea will have 55.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of SK Telecom increasing to 50.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: SK Telecom Co., Ltd.; Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF); LG Telecom Ltd.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on South Korea provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the South Korean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for South Korea include: SK Telecom Co., Ltd., Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF), and LG Telecom Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in the South Korean wireless market+4.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth continues-4.5% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing slightly-2.8% industry-wide average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth at KTF in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth was 12.6% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in South Korea to reach 55.3 million in 2013

We forecast that the number of total mobile subscribers in South Korea will increase from 45.6 million in 2008 to 55.3 million in 2013.
All operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.
We expect that SK Telecom will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 28.0 million subscribers in 2013.
Our model predicts that KTF will have 17.3 million subscribers and LG Telecom will have 10.0 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

Market shares of SK Telecom, KTF, and LG Telecom will remain stable over the next several years

We forecast that SK Telecom will continue to lead South Korea in market shares. We expect that SK Telecom's subscriber market share will remain at approximately 50.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
On the other hand, subscriber market shares at KTF and LG Telecom will be 31.3% and 18.1% in 2013, according to our model.

ARPUs have stopped declining in South Korea's wireless market

Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU in South Korea will remain in the range of 38,700 won - 39,400 won from 2009 to 2013.
We expect that SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of ARPU in South Korea with monthly ARPU of 43,151 won in 2013.
We forecast that monthly ARPU levels at KTF and LG Telecom will be 35,280 won and 32,510 won respectively in 2013.

SK Telecom will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than KTF and LG Telecom

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 25.6% in 2008 to 24.3% in 2013.
SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability in South Korea's mobile operator space. We forecast that EBITDA margins at SK Telecom, KTF, and LG Telecom will be approximately 31.5%, 23.5%, and 11.8% respectively in 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 South Korea Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: South Korea will have 55.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of SK Telecom increasing to 50.6%

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Abstract