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4Q09 South Africa Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: South Africa will have 63 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Vodacom declining to 48.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd
MTN Group Limited
Cell C (Pty) Ltd
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Not available for this country forecast

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on South Africa provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the South African wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for South Africa include: Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd, MTN Group Limited, and Cell C (Pty) Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in South Africa's wireless market+15.8% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth across operators in the latest quarter-7.4% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are declining-9.1% industry average MOU growth in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at MTN in the latest quarter -2.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

South Africa will have 63 million mobile subscribers in 2013
  • We forecast that total wireless subscribers in South Africa will increase from 47.7 million in 2008 to 63.0 million in 2013.
  • We expect that Vodacom will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country with 30.6 million subscribers in 2013.
  • Also, our model predicts that MTN will have 23.2 million subscribers and Cell C will have 8.4 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Vodacom will be losing subscriber market share to MTN and Cell C from 2009 to 2013
  • Vodacom will continue to lead South Africa in market share, but our model predicts that its subscriber market share will decline from 50.3% in 2008 to 48.6% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we expect that market shares at MTN and Cell C will increase to 36.8% and 13.3% respectively in 2013.
ARPUs in South Africa will continue to decrease over the next five years
  • We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decrease from ZAR 141.79 in 2008 to ZAR 112.31 in 2013.
  • According to our model, Vodacom's monthly ARPU will decrease from ZAR 140.79 to ZAR 110.91, and MTN's monthly ARPU will decrease from ZAR 148.00 to ZAR 114.68 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • We also expect that Cell C's monthly ARPU will decline from ZAR 127.99 in 2008 to ZAR 110.69 in 2013.
Vodacom will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than MTN and Cell C
  • Our model predicts that Vodacom’s EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will continue to be higher than those of MTN and Cell C. Our model predicts that, in 2013, EBITDA margins at Vodacom, MTN, and Cell C will be approximately 32.7%, 32.5%, and 16.0% respectively.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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