4Q09 Singapore Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Singapore will have 6.91 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of StarHub increasing to 28.4%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Table of Contents

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (SingTel)

MobileOne Ltd

StarHub Ltd.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *

* Available only for MobileOne Ltd.

Abstract

• We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Singapore will increase from 6.34 million in 2008 to 6.91 million in 2013.
• SingTel will continue to be the largest operator in Singapore. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 2.94 million in 2008 to 3.24 million in 2013.
• Also, our model predicts that MobileOne will have 1.71 million subscribers while StarHub will have 1.96 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

• We expect that StarHub's subscriber market share will increase from 27.9% in 2008 to 28.4% in 2013.
• Also, we forecast that SingTel's market share will increase slightly from 46.4% in 2008 to 46.8% in 2013.
• In contrast, we expect that MobileOne's share of total subscribers will decline from 25.7% in 2008 to 24.8% in 2013.

• Our forecasting model predicts that SingTel's monthly ARPU will decline from SGD 54.05 in 2008 to SGD 50.01 in 2013.
• Also, MobileOne's monthly ARPU will decrease from SGD 38.88 to SGD 34.60, and StarHub's ARPU will decrease from SGD 51.04 to SGD 47.85 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

• We think that MobileOne's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than those of its competitors.
• According to our model, EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) for SingTel, MobileOne, and StarHub will be approximately 38.3%, 45.5%, and 34.1% respectively in 2013.

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