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4Q09 Russia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Russia will have 276 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with MTS taking market share of 35.2%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS)
Vimpel-Communications (VimpelCom)
MegaFon OJSC
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR *
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Not available for MegaFon OJSC

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Russia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Russian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Russia include: Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS), Vimpel-Communications (VimpelCom), and MegaFon OJSC. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Strong subscriber growth continues in the Russian wireless market+13.7% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels declined across operators in the latest quarter-7.4% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizingThe industry average MOU/Sub growth of +0.7% in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at MTS in the latest quarter-34.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Russia to reach 276 million in 2013
  • Given the latest quarter numbers, we are forecasting that total mobile subscribers in Russia will increase from 187.8 million in 2008 to 276.4 million in 2013.
  • Our model predicts that MTS's number of subscribers will increase from 64.6 million accounts in 2008 to 97.4 million accounts in 2013.
  • We also expect that, by the end of 2013, VimpelCom will have 70.5 million subscribers while MegaFon will have 60.7 million subscribers.
MTS's market share to increase slightly over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that MTS will see its subscriber market share increase from 34.4% in 2008 to 35.2% in 2013.
  • In comparison, VimpelCom's market share will remain at approximately 25.5% over the next five years.
  • We expect that MegaFon's market share will decline slightly from 23.0% in 2008 to 22.0% in 2013.
ARPU levels in Russia will be falling from 2009 to 2013
  • We expect that MTS's ARPUs will be declining over the next five years. Our model forecasts that MTS's monthly ARPU will fall from RUB 245 in 2008 to RUB 195 in 2013.
  • In comparison, we forecast that VimpelCom's monthly ARPU will remain much higher than MTS's at RUB 322 in 2013 (down from RUB 329 in 2008).
  • Also, we expect that MegaFon's monthly ARPU will decline from RUB 364 in 2008 to RUB 326 in 2013.
MTS's EBITDA margin will be declining over the next several years
  • We forecast that MTS's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 50.1% in 2008 to 41.9% in 2013.
  • VimpelCom, on the other hand, will see its EBITDA margin improve from 52.4% in 2008 to 46.5% in 2013, according to our model.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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