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4Q09 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Portugal to reach 16.9 million in 2013 with TMN maintaining its 44% market share over the next five years

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A.
Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.
Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Available only for TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A. and Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Portuguese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A., Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A., and Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Portugal's mobile operator space+8.1 industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

All of the operators had double-digit negative ARPU growth rates in the latest quarter-14.1% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing +4.2% industry average MOU growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA declined at TMN and Vodafone in the latest quarter-7.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total mobile subscribers in Portugal to reach 16.9 million in 2013
  • We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Portugal will increase from 15.7 million in 2008 to 16.9 million in 2013.
  • All operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next five years. We expect TMN's subscriber base to increase from 6.94 million in 2008 to 7.48 million in 2013.
  • Also, our model predicts that Vodafone Portugal’s mobile subscriber base will increase from 5.58 million to 5.96 million and that of Optimus will increase from 3.19 to 3.52 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Our model does not predict significant changes in market shares over the next five years
  • Our model forecasts that TMN will continue to be the largest operator in Portugal's wireless space with a subscriber market share of approximately 44.1% over the next five years.
  • We expect that Vodafone Portugal's market share will decrease slightly from 35.5% to 35.1% while that of Optimus rises from 20.3% to 20.8% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPUs will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
  • All of the three wireless carriers will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from €18.52 in 2008 to €14.23 in 2013.
  • Although Vodafone Portugal will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in the country, we forecast that its monthly ARPU will still decline from €20.42 in 2008 to €15.94 in 2013.
  • Monthly ARPUs at TMN and Optimus will also decline to €13.52 and €12.85 respectively in 2013.
EBITDA margins to remain stable over the next several years
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve slightly from 37.0% in 2008 to 37.3% in 2013.
  • TMN will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Vodafone Portugal and Optimus. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus will be approximately 43.0%, 34.0%, and 30.1% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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