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4Q09 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Pakistan will have 130.6 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Mobilink declining to 27.8%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited)
Ufone GSM
China Mobile Ltd. (Paktel)
Telenor ASA
Warid Telecom International
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ***
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ***
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ***
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Not available for this country forecast
** Available only for Mobilink
*** Available only for Mobilink and Telenor

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Pakistan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Pakistan’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Pakistan include: Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited), Ufone GSM, China Mobile Ltd. (Paktel), Instaphone, Telenor ASA, and Warid Telecom International. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Pakistan's wireless market +7.2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs are decreasing in Pakistan's mobile operator space-14.5% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Mobilink+6.4% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at Mobilink and Telenor in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth was -22.6% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Pakistan to reach 130.6 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 94.7million in 2008 to 130.6 million in 2013.
  • Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan’s mobile operator space over the next five years. We expect that Mobilink will have 36.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
  • Also, given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Ufone GSM will have 27.2 million, Telenor will have 27.2 million, and Warid will have 25.6 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
Mobilink will see its subscriber market share decline from 2009 - 2013
  • Our model predicts that Mobilink's market share will decline steadily over the next five years, from 37.6% in 2008 to 27.8% in 2013.
  • We forecast that market shares at Ufone, Telenor, Warid, and China Mobile will be approximately 20.8%, 20.8%, 19.6%, and 10.9% respectively in 2013.
ARPUs will remain low in Pakistan's wireless market
  • ARPU levels remain low in Pakistan's mobile operator space. We expect that the industry average ARPU will decline from US$ 2.66 in 1Q.2008 to US$ 2.48 in 1Q.2009.
  • We think that, in 2013, Telenor's monthly ARPU will be at highest among operators at US$ 2.78. The operator with the lowest monthly ARPU will be China Mobile (Paktel) with US$ 1.19 in 2013.
Mobilink's EBITDA margin will continue to be higher than Telenor's
  • We expect that Mobilink's profitability will deteriorate over the next several years, but Mobilink's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will continue to be higher than Telenor's.
  • Our model forecasts that Telenor's EBITDA margin will be 20.3% and Mobilink's EBITDA margin will be 32.7% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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