4Q09 Norway Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Norway will have 6.1 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Telenor's market share declining to 54.8% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Norway Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Norway will have 6.1 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Telenor's market share declining to 54.8%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Telenor ASA; NetCom (TeliaSonera AB)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD); * Available only for NetCom (TeliaSonera AB)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Norway provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Norwegian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Norway include: Telenor ASA, and NetCom (TeliaSonera AB). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is stabilizing in Norway's operator space+1.0% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth was negative across operators in the latest quarter-8.0% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Telenor +3.3% MOU/Sub growth at Telenor in 2Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth at Telenor in the latest quarter Telenor's EBITDA growth was +7.0% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Norway to reach 6.09 million in 2013

Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total wireless subscribers in Norway will increase from 5.45 million in 2008 to 6.09 million in 2013.
Our model predicts that Telenor's subscriber base will increase from 3.02 million accounts in 2008 to 3.33 million accounts in 2013.

Telenor will be losing its subscriber market share to its competitors over the next five years

Telenor will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in Norway, but we forecast that Telenor's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 55.4% in 2008 to 54.8% in 2013.
The rest of the market will be taken by other operators such as Netcom (TeliaSonera). Their combined market share will increase from 44.6% in 2008 to 45.2% in 2013.

ARPU levels in Norway to continue declining slightly over the next several years

Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will decrease from NKR 323.52 to NKR 306.73 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
We expect that Telenor's monthly ARPU will fall from NKR 317.50 in 2008 to NKR 309.17 in 2013.

Telenor's level of profitability will remain above the industry average

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will rise from 35.5% in 2008 to 37.3% in 2013.
Telenor's EBITDA margin will continue to be above the industry average. Our model predicts that Telenor's EBITDA margin will increase from 35.6% in 2008 to 38.7% in 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 Norway Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Norway will have 6.1 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Telenor's market share declining to 54.8%

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Abstract