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4Q09 Nigeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Nigeria will have 114.9 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with T-Mobile's market share rising to 37.8%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
MTN Group Limited
MTC - Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain Group)
Nitel - Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (For Nitel, only the subscriber data is available.)
Globacom Ltd. (For Globacom, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Not available for this country forecast
** Available only for MTN Group Limited

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Nigeria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Nigerian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Nigeria include: MTN Group Limited, MTC - Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain Group), Nitel - Nigerian Telecommunications Limited, and Globacom Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Strong subscriber growth continues in Nigeria's wireless market+31.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs declined significantly in the latest quarter-20.8% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth at MTN in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth was 14.4% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Nigeria to reach 121.5 million in 2013
  • The wireless penetration rate in Nigeria is currently still below 50%, and we expect that the Nigerian wireless market will continue to expand rapidly over the next several years. Our model forecasts that total mobile subscribers in Nigeria will increase from 63.0 million in 2008 to 121.5 million in 2013.
  • MTN will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Nigeria. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 23.1 million in 2008 to 42.6 million in 2013.
  • Also, we forecast that the number of mobile subscribers at MTC will increase from 17.2 million in 2008 to 27.5 million in 2013.
  • We also expect that Nitel's subscriber base will increase dramatically over the next several years to reach 24.1 million in 2013. We also predict that Globalcom will have 27.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
MTN leads Nigeria’s mobile operator space, but its market share will be declining
  • We forecast that, while MTN will continue to be in the leading position in Nigeria's wireless market, it will be losing its subscriber market share to smaller operators over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • Our model predicts that MTN's share of total subscribers will fall from 36.6% in 2008 to 35.0% in 2013. MTC will also see its market share decline from 27.3% in 2008 to 22.7% in 2013.
  • We expect that market shares at Nitel and Globacom will be 19.9% and 22.5% respectively in 2013.
ARPUs will continue to decrease in Nigeria's wireless market
  • According to our forecasting model, MTN's monthly ARPU will fall from US$ 15.01 in 2008 to US$ 11.76 in 2013.
  • Also, MTC's ARPU level will fall from US$ 9.26 in 2008 to US$ 5.32 in 2013.
EBITDA margins to improve slightly over the next five years
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 48.2% in 2008 to 53.2% in 2013.
  • MTN will continue to enjoy a high level of profitability in Nigeria's wireless market. Our model predicts that MTN's EBITDA margin will increase from 58.0% in 2008 to 62.1% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, MTC will see an increase in its EBITDA margin from 35.6% in 2008 to 37.7% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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