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4Q09 Netherlands Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 24.9 million mobile subscribers in the Netherlands in 2013 with KPN Mobile taking market share of 56.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
KPN Mobile N.V.
Vodafone Group Plc
Ben (T-Mobile International AG)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Not available for KPN Mobile N.V.

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the Netherlands provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Dutch wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for the Netherlands include: KPN Mobile N.V., Vodafone Group Plc, and Ben (T-Mobile International AG). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Positive subscriber growth continues in the Dutch wireless market+7.3% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs declined across operators in the latest quarter-4.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasing The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -7.0% in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth for Vodafone and Ben (T-Mobile) in the latest quarter0% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in the Netherlands to reach 24.9 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total wireless subscribers in the Netherlands will increase from 19.6 million in 2008 to 24.9 million in 2013.
  • KPN Mobile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the Netherlands and we forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 9.78 million in 2008 to 14.1 million in 2013.
  • According to our model, Ben (T-Mobile)'s subscribers will also increase from 5.31 million to 5.42 million and Vodafone's subscribers will increase from 4.54 million to 5.41 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
KPN Mobile will be taking market shares away from Ben (T-Mobile) and Vodafone over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will continue to lead the Netherlands in market shares; its share of subscribers will increase from 49.8% in 2008 to 56.6% in 2013.
  • The market share gains at KPN Mobile will be at the expense of Ben (T-Mobile) and Vodafone; we forecast that Vodafone's market share will fall from 23.1% to 21.7% and Ben's market share will fall from 27.0% to 21.7% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Vodafone will continue to enjoy the highest ARPU level in the country despite market share loss
  • Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level in the Netherlands will decrease from €27.81 in 2008 to €24.49 in 2013.
  • Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU level in the country, and we expect that its monthly ARPU will be €34.21 in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we expect that ARPU levels at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) in 2013 will be €21.12 and €23.53 respectively.
KPN Mobile will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Ben (T-Mobile) and Vodafone over the next several years
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline slightly from 31.7% in 2008 to 31.0% in 2013.
  • KPN Mobile will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Ben (T-Mobile) and Vodafone over the next five years although we expect that its EBITDA margin will decline from 39.9% in 2008 to 36.4% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, our model predicts that Ben (T-Mobile) will see its EBIDTA margin improve from 19.5% in 2008 to 23.3% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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