|
Published by: IE Market Research Corp.
Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages
Table of Contents
- Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
- NTT DOCOMO, Inc.
- KDDI Corporation
- SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp.
- WILLCOM, Inc. (For WILLCOM, only the subscriber data is available.)
- Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
- PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
- SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
- SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
- NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
- DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
- VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
- VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
- MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
- MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
- SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
- SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
- YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
- REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
- SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
- EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
- REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
- DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
- VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
- SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
- EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
- CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- * Available only for NTT DOCOMO, Inc. and KDDI Corporation
AbstractIEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Japan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Japanese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Japan include: NTT DOCOMO, Inc., KDDI Corporation, SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp., and WILLCOM, Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Japan's wireless market+3.4% Industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to decline across operators in Japan-6.6% industry-average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizingAverage MOU/Sub of 136 minutes per month in 2Q.2009
NTT DOCOMO's EBITDA growth continues to be negative+0.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Japan to reach 126.5 million in 2013- We expect the number of mobile subscriber accounts in Japan to continue increasing over the next five years. Our model predicts that it will increase from 109.3 million in 2008 to 126.5 million in 2013.
- NTT DOCOMO will continue to serve the highest number of subscribers among other operators. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber base will increase from 54.2 million in 2008 to 60.2 million in 2013.
- KDDI will continue to be the second largest operator in Japan with 33.6 million mobile subscribers in 2013, and the third largest will be SOFTBANK MOBILE with 28.6 million subscribers in 2013, according to our model.
SOFTBANK MOBILE's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years- Our model predicts that NTT DOCOMO's subscriber market share will decrease from 49.6% in 2008 to 47.6% in 2013. Instead, SOFTBANK MOBILE will see its market share increase from 18.3% in 2008 to 22.6% in 2013.
- We forecast that KDDI's share of total subscribers will also decline from 28.0% in 2008 to 26.6% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that WILLCOM's market share will fall from 4.2% to 3.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels will continue declining from 2009 to 2013- We forecast that the operator-wide average monthly ARPU in Japan will decrease from 5,571 yen in 2008 to 4,200 yen in 2013.
- We expect that SOFTBANK MOBILE will continue to charge lower tariffs than its competitors to gain market share. According to our forecasting model, ARPU levels at NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SOFTBANK MOBILE will decline over the next five years to reach 4,447 yen, 4,333 yen, and 3,513 yen respectively in 2013.
NTT DOCOMO will be enjoying the highest EBITDA margins among mobile operators in Japan - We expect that NTT DOCOMO's EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will continue to be higher than those of KDDI and SOFTBANK MOBILE over the next several years.
- We forecast that EBITDA margins at NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SOFTBANK MOBILE will be approximately 37.2%, 32.8%, and 25.4% respectively in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.
Get Full Details About This Report >>
|
|
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
|
|
|
|
About MarketResearch.com
MarketResearch.com is an online aggregator selling over 250,000 market research reports, company profiles and country profiles from over 650 research firms. Our reports will provide you with the critical business and competitive intelligence you need for strategic planning and marketing research. Coverage includes the US, UK, Europe, Asia and global markets.
© MarketResearch.com 2009
|
