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4Q09 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Telecom Italia Mobile's subscriber market share will decline to 34.5% in 2013 as Wind and Hutchison, with lower ARPUs, gain more subscribers

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
Vodafone Group Plc
Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
* Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone Group Plc
** Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
*** Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Italian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Italy include: Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Negative subscriber growth continues at Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) -0.4% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth continues to be in negative territory for Wind and Hutchison-0.9% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing+3.9% operator-wide average MOU growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA declined for both TIM and Vodafone in the latest quarter-0.1% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Italy to reach 94.5 million in 2013
  • Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total wireless subscriber accounts in Italy will increase from 90.5 million in 2008 to 94.5 million in 2013.
  • We forecast that TIM's subscriber base will decline to 32.6 million while Vodafone's subscriber base increases to 31.6 million by the end of 2013.
  • On the other hand, we expect that Wind and Hutchison will see their subscriber bases increase to 18.8 million and 11.5 million respectively by the end of 2013.
TIM will be losing its subscriber market share to Wind and Hutchison over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that TIM’s subscriber market share will decline from 38.5% in 2008 to 34.5% in 2013.
  • We expect that Vodafone's market share will remain stable at approximately 33.5% over the next several years.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that Wind's market share will increase from 18.7% to 19.9%, and Hutchison's share will rise from 9.7% to 12.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels to stabilize at TIM, Vodafone, and Wind from 2009 to 2013
  • Our forecasting model predicts that the average monthly ARPU in Italy will decline from €20.51 in 2008 to €19.44 in 2013.
  • We expect that monthly ARPUs at TIM, Vodafone and Wind will be approximately €20.46, €22.93 and €17.60, respectively in 2013.
EBITDA margins will be stable over the next five years
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will change from 42.5% in 2008 to 42.2% in 2013.
  • Our model forecasts that TIM's EBITDA margin will remain stable at approximately 44.7% over the next five years.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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