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4Q09 India Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: India will have 942 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Bharti Airtel increasing to 26.7%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Reliance Communications Ltd.
Vodafone Essar Limited
Bharti Airtel Limited
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) (For BSNL, only the subscriber data is available.)
Idea Cellular Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR *
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Available only for Reliance Communications (RCom), Bharti Airtel, and Idea Cellular

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on India provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Indian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for India include: Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCom), Vodafone Essar Limited, Bharti Airtel Limited, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), and Idea Cellular Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Wireless subscriber growth in India continues to be one of the fastest in the world+49.0% industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels continue to fall at an increasing rate-22.8% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined across operators in the latest quarter-11.2% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth at Bharti Airtel in the latest quarter+20.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in India to reach 942.3 million in 2013
  • By combining historical trends with the current market conditions, our forecasting model now predicts that the number of total wireless subscribers in India will reach 942.3 million in 2013.
  • Bharti-Airtel will continue to be the largest operator in India. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 85.7 million in 2008 to 251.1 million in 2013.
  • Our model also predicts that RCom (Reliance Communications) will have 174.1 million mobile subscribers and Vodafone Essar will have 151.6 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
We see some shift in market share among operators with BSNL losing market share to Bharti Airtel and Idea
  • Bharti Airtel will continue to be the leader in India's wireless market. We forecast that its subscriber market share will increase from 24.7% in 2008 to 26.7% in 2013.
  • We also expect that market share of Idea will be increasing over the next five years to reach 12.3% in 2013.
  • In contrast, our model predicts that BSNL's market share will decline from 13.3% in 2008 to 9.4% in 2013.
ARPU declines to continue over the next five years
  • ARPU levels in India will continue to fall across operators over the next several years. Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from INR 302 in 2008 to INR 227 in 2013.
  • We expect that RCom will continue to receive the lowest ARPUs in India's mobile operator space. We forecast that its monthly ARPU will decline from INR 277 in 2008 to INR 189 in 2013.
Bharti Airtel will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than RCom and Idea
  • We expect that Bharti Airtel's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than those of RCom and Idea.
  • Our model predicts that EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) at Bharti Airtel, RCom, and Idea will be 47.1%, 40.5%, and 19.6% respectively in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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