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4Q09 Hungary Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Hungary will have 13 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with T-Mobile's market share increasing to 47.0%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
T-Mobile International AG
Pannon (Telenor ASA)
Vodafone Group Plc
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR **
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR **
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) **
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
* Available only for T-Mobile International AG
** Available only for T-Mobile International AG and Pannon (Telenor ASA)
*** Available only for Pannon (Telenor ASA)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Hungary provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Hungarian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Hungary include: T-Mobile International AG, Pannon (Telenor ASA), and Vodafone Group Plc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Hungary's wireless market turned negative in the latest quarter-1.8% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs continue to decline across operators in Hungary-10.2% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber increased at T-Mobile in the latest quarter+3.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at T-Mobile and Pannon (Telenor) in the latest quarter-6.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Hungary will have 13 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013
  • According to our forecasting model, total mobile subscribers in Hungary will increase from 12.2 million in 2008 to 13.0 million in 2013.
  • T-Mobile will continue to be the largest operator in Hungary's wireless market. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 5.36 million in 2008 to 6.12 million in 2013.
  • We also forecast that Pannon (Telenor) will have 4.09 million subscribers and Vodafone will have 2.82 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
T-Mobile's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
  • We expect that T-Mobile's market share will increase from 43.8% to 47.0% and Pannon's market share will increase from 30.5% to 31.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline from 25.6% in 2008 to 21.6% in 2013.
We expect ARPU levels in Hungary's wireless market to decline from 2009 to 2013
  • We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from HUF 4,384 in 2008 to HUF 3,617 in 2013.
  • Our model predicts that monthly ARPUs at T-Mobile, Pannon (Telenor), and Vodafone will be approximately HUF 3,206, HUF 3,960 and HUF 3,994 respectively in 2013.
T-Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Pannon (Telenor)
  • We forecast that the operator-wide average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue; only for Pannon and T-Mobile) will improve from 41.0% in 2008 to 42.7% in 2013.
  • T-Mobile will continue to have a higher level of profitability than Pannon. Our model forecasts that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will be 44.4% in 2013 (up from 41.5% in 2008).
  • On the other hand, we expect Pannon's EBITDA margin to remain at approximately 40.3% over the next several years.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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