4Q09 Germany Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Germany will have 114.9 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with T-Mobile's market share rising to 37.8% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Germany Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Germany will have 114.9 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with T-Mobile's market share rising to 37.8%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: T-Mobile International AG; D2 (Vodafone Group Plc); E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH & Co. KG; Telefónica O2 Germany GmbH & Co OHG
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Germany provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the German wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Germany include: T-Mobile International AG, D2 (Vodafone Group Plc), E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH & Co. KG, and Telefónica O2 Germany GmbH & Co OHG. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Germany is slowing down+3.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth continues to be negative across operators-8.2% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber remain stable in GermanyIndustry average MOU/Sub was 104 minutes per month in 2Q.2009

EBITDA growth was negative at T-Mobile and D2 (Vodafone) in the latest quarter-2.6% operator-wide average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Germany to reach 114.9 million in 2013

According to our forecasting model, total wireless subscriber accounts in Germany will increase from 107.2 million in 2008 to 114.9 million in 2013.
T-Mobile will remain as the largest wireless operator in the country over the next five years; we expect that it will have approximately 43.5 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
D2 (Vodafone) will continue to be the second largest operator in the country. However, given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that its subscriber base will be declining over the next five years to reach 28.0 million in 2013.

T-Mobile's subscriber market share will increase over the next several years

Our model predicts that the largest operator, T-Mobile, will see its subscriber market share increase from 36.5% in 2008 to 37.8% in 2013.
E-Plus’s market share will also increase from 16.6% to 19.0% while that of Telefónica O2 will increase from 13.2% to 18.8% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
In contrast, we expect that D2 (Vodafone)'s share of subscribers will decline to below 25% by the end of 2013.

ARPU levels will be decreasing from 2009 to 2013

We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU level will decrease from €16.09 in 2008 to €12.77 in 2013.
We are forecasting that T-Mobile's monthly ARPU will decline from €15.64 in 2008 to €13.81 in 2013.
Telefónica O2, which currently receives the highest ARPU in the country, will also see its ARPU level decline over the next several years. We expect that Telefónica O2's monthly ARPU will be €13.67 in 2013.

EBITDA margins to decline at T-Mobile and D2 (Vodafone) over the next five years

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be in the range of 38% - 41% over the next five years.
At the operator level, we expect that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will decline from 39.0% to 35.6% and D2 (Vodafone)'s EBITDA margin will decline from 50.9% to 46.9% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 Germany Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Germany will have 114.9 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with T-Mobile's market share rising to 37.8%

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Abstract