4Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: France will have 67.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Orange's MVNOs taking 5.5% market share : Market Research Report

4Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: France will have 67.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Orange's MVNOs taking 5.5% market share

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Orange (France Telecom S.A.); SFR (Vodafone Group Plc); Bouygues Telecom; Orange’s MVNOs (Only the subscriber data is available for MVNOs); SFR’s MVNOs (Only the subscriber data is available for MVNOs)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the French wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for France include: Orange (France Telecom S.A.), SFR (Vodafone Group Plc), Bouygues Telecom, Orange's MVNOs, and SFR's MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

All operators enjoy positive subscriber growth in the French wireless market+5.3% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU level is declining in France-0.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber stabilizing at about 250 minutes per month0% industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at SFR (Vodafone) and Bouygues Telecom in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth was +0.2% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in France to rise to 67.7 million in 2013

We forecast that total mobile subscribers in France will increase from 57.4 million in 2008 to 67.7 million in 2013.
Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest operator. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 25.2 million in 2008 to 28.5 million in 2013.
Our forecasting model also predicts that numbers of subscribers at SFR and Bouygues Telecom will be 22.9 million and 11.1 million respectively in 2013.

MVNOs of Orange and SFR will be taking higher shares of total subscribers over the next several years

Our model predicts that Orange's subscriber market share will decrease from 43.9% to 42.1% while the market share of its MVNO increases from 3.2% to 5.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Also, although SFR's market share will decline from 34.2% in 2008 to 33.8% in 2013, SFR's MVNOs will see their combined market share increase from 2.0% in 2008 to 2.3% in 2013, according to our model.
We expect that Bouygues Telecom's market share will remain stable in the range of 16% - 17% over the next five years.

ARPU levels will stabilize in France's mobile operator space from 2009 to 2013

Although ARPU levels continue to decline in many wireless markets around the world, we expect that ARPUs in France will remain stable over the next several years.
Our model forecasts that Orange's monthly ARPU will increase slightly from €33.19 in 2008 to €34.51 in 2013 while monthly ARPU at SFR (Vodafone) declines from €36.04 in 2008 to €34.93 in 2013.
Bouygues Telecom's ARPU level continues to be higher than the other operators’ ARPU levels. Bouygues Telecom’s monthly ARPU will be approximately €41.50 from 2009 to 2013.

EBITDA margins will decline slightly in the French mobile operator space

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 36.1% in 2008 to 33.7% in 2013.
Our model predicts that Orange's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.3% to 34.7% and SFR (Vodafone)'s margin will fall from 38.9% to 37.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: France will have 67.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Orange's MVNOs taking 5.5% market share

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Abstract