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4Q09 Finland Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Finland will have 9.32 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with TeliaSonera's market share declining to 33.3%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
TeliaSonera AB
Elisa Oyj
DNA Finland Oy
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Available only for TeliaSonera and Elisa

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Finland provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Finish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Finland include: TeliaSonera AB, Elisa Oyj, and DNA Finland Oy. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Strong subscriber growth continues in Finland's wireless market+12.7% industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels continue declining in Finland's mobile operator space-11.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasingThe industry average MOU/Sub growth of -11.7% in 2Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth across operators in the latest quarter+10.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Finland to reach 9.32 million in 2013
  • We forecast that the number of total subscriber accounts in Finland will increase from 6.78 million in 2008 to 9.32 million in 2013.
  • The largest mobile operator in 2013 will be Elisa with 3.57 million mobile subscribers. We also forecast that the numbers of mobile subscribers at TeliaSonera and DNA will be approximately 3.10 million and 2.65 million respectively by the end of 2013.
TeliaSonera's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
  • We forecast that TeliaSonera's subscriber market share in Finland's wireless market will decline from 39.5% in 2008 to 33.3% in 2013.
  • In comparison, we expect that Elisa's market share will increase from 37.5% to 38.3% and DNA's market share will increase from 23.1% to 28.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Finland will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
  • Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from €25.78 in 2008 to €15.94 in 2013.
  • We expect that TeliaSonera's monthly ARPU will decline to €15.28 and Elisa's monthly ARPU will decline to €14.58 by the end of 2013.
EBITDA margins to remain stable in Finland's wireless market
  • TeliaSonera will continue to have higher EBITDA margins than Elisa and DNA over the next five years. We forecast that TeliaSoneras EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be approximately 31.3% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that EBITDA margins at Elisa and DNA will be 30.1% and 20.9% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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