4Q09 Denmark Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Denmark will have 7.89 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with TDC Mobile's market share increasing to 47.2% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Denmark Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Denmark will have 7.89 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with TDC Mobile's market share increasing to 47.2%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: TDC Mobile International; Telenor ASA; TeliaSonera AB; Hutchison 3G (For Hutchison 3G, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *; MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *; VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD); * Available only for TDC Mobile International and TeliaSonera AB; ** Available only for TDC Mobile International

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Denmark provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Danish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Denmark include: TDC Mobile International, Telenor ASA, TeliaSonera AB, and Hutchison 3G. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Denmark's wireless market+5.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs continue declining in Denmark's wireless market-11.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber started to decline-4.2% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA decreased across operators in the latest quarter-8.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Denmark to increase to 7.89 million in 2013

We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Denmark will increase from 6.85 million in 2008 to 7.89 million in 2013.
We expect that the largest mobile operator, TDC Mobile, will see its subscriber base increase from 3.16 million in 2008 to 3.73 million in 2013.
Also, our model predicts that Telenor will have 2.10 million subscribers and TeliaSonera will have 1.57 million subscribers in Denmark's wireless market by the end of 2013.

TDC Mobile's subscriber market share will increase slightly over the next five years

Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that TDC Mobile's subscriber market share will rise from 46.2% in 2008 to 47.2% in 2013. We also expect that Hutchison 3G will see its market share increase from 5.6% in 2008 to 6.3% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that TeliaSonera's market share to decrease from 21.8% in 2008 to 19.9% in 2013.
We expect that Telenor's market share will remain stable at approximately 26.6% over the next five years.

ARPUs in Denmark will continue to decline slightly over the next several years

TeliaSonera will continue to receive higher ARPUs than TDC Mobile and Telenor. We forecast that TeliaSonera's monthly ARPU will be DKK 256 in 2013 (down from DKK 269 in 2008).
TDC Mobile's monthly ARPU will be much lower at DKK 157 in 2013, down from DKK 180 in 2008.

TDC Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Telenor and TeliaSonera

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase slightly from 23.2% in 2008 to 24.3% in 2013.
TDC Mobile's EBITDA margin will remain higher than those of Telenor and TeliaSonera over the next five years. We expect that EBITDA margins at TDC Mobile, Telenor, and TeliaSonera will be approximately 26.7%, 24.3%, and 21.0% in 2013.

Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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4Q09 Denmark Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Denmark will have 7.89 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with TDC Mobile's market share increasing to 47.2%

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Abstract