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4Q09 Czech Republic Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Czech Republic will have 14.6 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Vodafone's market share increasing to 23.1%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Telefonica O2 Czech Republic
T-Mobile International AG
Vodafone Group Plc
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Not available for this country forecast

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Czech Republic provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Czech Republic’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Czech Republic include: Telefonica O2 Czech Republic, T-Mobile International AG, and Vodafone Group Plc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth has increased slightly in Czech Republic's wireless market+3.2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels declined at T-Mobile and Vodafone in the latest quarter-5.9% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing+5.1% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA increased significantly at T-Mobile in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth rate was +25.7% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Czech Republic to reach 14.6 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Czech Republic will increase from 13.1 million in 2008 to 14.6 million in 2013.
  • At the operator level, our model predicts that the largest operator, T-Mobile, will see its subscriber base increase from 5.42 million in 2008 to 5.89 million in 2013.
  • We also forecast that Telefonica will have 5.38 million subscribers and Vodafone will have 3.38 million subscribers in 2013.
T-Mobile's subscriber market share will be declining slightly over the next five years
  • Our forecasting model predicts that T-Mobile's subscriber market share will be declining slightly from 41.3% in 2008 to 40.2% in 2013. Instead, Vodafone's market share will rise from 22.0% in 2008 to 23.1% in 2013.
  • We expect that Telefonica's share of total subscribers will remain at approximately 36.6% over the next five years.
The industry average ARPU level will decrease over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decrease from CZK 526 in 2008 to CZK 510 in 2013. We forecast that T-Mobile's monthly ARPU will decline to CZK 477 while that of Vodafone declines to CZK 491 in 2013.
  • However, we expect that Telefonica's ARPU level will increase from CZK 518 in 2008 to CZK 557 in 2013.
T-Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Telefonica and Vodafone
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 45% - 48% over the next several years.
  • T-Mobile will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Telefonica and Vodafone in Czech's mobile operator space. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at T-Mobile, Vodafone, Telefonica will be approximately 50.1%, 42.8%, and 41.7% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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