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4Q09 China Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: China will have 1.17 billion mobile subscribers in 2013 with China Mobile taking 71.3% subscriber market share

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
China Mobile Ltd.
China Unicom Ltd.
China Telecom Corporation Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Available only for China Mobile Ltd. and China Unicom Ltd.

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on China provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Chinese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for China include: China Mobile Ltd., China Unicom Ltd., and China Telecom Corporation Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in China's mobile operator space+15.7% industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels in China continue declining -5.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber growth slows down China's mobile operator space+0.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA growth is slowing down in China-1.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

China will have 1.17 billion mobile subscribers in 2013
  • We forecast that total mobile subscribers in China will increase from 641.2 million in 2008 to 1.17 billion in 2013.
  • Our model predicts that the largest operator, China Mobile, will have 833.7 million subscribers in 2013. China Unicom will have 178.9 million and China Telecom will have 133.0 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013, according to our model.
China Telecom's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
  • We expect that China Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 4.4% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, China Unicom, which sold part of its operations to China Telecom in 2008, will see its subscriber market share fall from 20.8% in 2008 to 15.3% in 2013.
  • We forecast that China Mobile will maintain its high market share in the Chinese wireless market over the next five years. We expect that its share of total subscribers will be 71.3% in 2013.
ARPU levels are stabilizing at China Unicom and China Telecom
  • We expect that China Mobile will see its monthly ARPU decrease from RMB 83.00 in 2008 to RMB 62.41 in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that ARPUs at China Unicom and China Telecom will be stable at approximately RMB 41 and RMB 63 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
China Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margin than China Unicom
  • According to our forecasting model, China Mobile's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 52.5% in 2008 to 57.9% in 2013.
  • China Unicom's EBITDA margin will remain lower. We expect that China Unicom's EBITDA margin will be 26.9% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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