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4Q09 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 29.1 million mobile subscribers in Canada by the end of 2013 with Rogers Wireless taking 37.7% market share

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Bell Mobility Inc.
Rogers Wireless Inc.
Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation)
MTS Allstream Inc.
Other Bell Mobility Inc. Affiliates
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
* Available only for Bell Mobility Inc. and Rogers Wireless Inc.
** Available only for Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., and Telus Mobility

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Canadian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation), and MTS Allstream Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is declining slightly in Canada's mobile operator space +6.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth across operators -3.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber continues to increase +0.2% industry average growth in MOU/Sub in 2Q.2009

EBITDA growth in Canada slows down+0.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 29.1 million in 2013
  • According to our forecasting model, total mobile subscribers in Canada will increase from 21.6 million in 2008 to 29.1 million in 2013.
  • We expect that Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber base increase from 7.94 million in 2008 to 11.0 million in 2013.
  • Also, we forecast that Bell Mobility will have 8.48 million mobile subscribers and Telus Mobility will have 8.39 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada in market shares. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber market share will increase from 36.8% in 2008 to 37.7% in 2013.
  • Also, Telus Mobility's market share will increase slightly from 28.4% in 2008 to 28.8% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we expect Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers to decline from 30.6% in 2008 to 29.1% in 2013.
  • We expect that MTS will continue to have a subscriber market share of 2.2% - 2.3% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
The overall ARPU level expected to decrease over the next several years
  • Our model predicts that the industry will see an overall decrease in operator ARPUs over the next five years.
  • Rogers Wireless will continue to enjoy a higher ARPU level than Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility, but we still expect that Rogers Wireless's ARPU will decline from C$ 63.72 in 2008 to C$ 55.64 in 2013.
  • On the other hand, average ARPU levels at Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will decline to C$ 51.40 and C$ 43.64 respectively in 2013, according to our model.
Profitability at Bell Mobility will improve over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013
  • We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 42.1% in 2013, down from 43.8% in 2008.
  • Our forecasting model predicts that Bell Mobility will see its EBITDA margin increase from 39.7% in 2008 to 43.8% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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