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4Q09 Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Bangladesh will have 63.2 million wireless subscribers in 2013 with GrameenPhone's market share declining to 36.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages


Table of Contents


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E)
GrameenPhone (Telenor ASA)
TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia Berhad)
PBTL (Singapore Telecommunications Ltd)
Warid Telecom International (For Warid, only the subscriber data is available.)
BTTB (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR ***
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ***
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR ***
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ***
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ***
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ***
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
* Not available for this country forecast
** Available only for Bangalink/Sheba
*** Available only for Bangalink/Sheba and GrameenPhone

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Bangladesh provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Bangladesh’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Bangladesh include: Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E), GrameenPhone (Telenor ASA), TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia Berhad), PBTL (Singapore Telecommunications Ltd), Warid Telecom International, and BTTB (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Wireless subscriber growth in Bangladesh has slowed down+7.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs stopped decreasing in the latest quarter+3.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per subscriber are stabilizing-3.1 industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth at GrameenPhone in the latest quarterGrameenPhone's EBITDA growth was +135.6% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh to rise to 63.2 million in 2013
  • We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh will increase from 47.9 million in 2008 to 63.2 million in 2013.
  • We expect that GrameenPhone will maintain its leading position in Bangladesh's wireless market over the next five years with 23.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
  • Banglalink, TM International, and Warid will remain in second, third, and fourth place respectively. Our model predicts that Banglalink will have 15.7 million, TM International will have 11.6 million, and Warid will have 7.4 million mobile subscribers respectively by the end of 2013.
GrameenPhone's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
  • Our model predicts that GrameenPhone's subscriber market share will decline from 43.8% in 2008 to 36.6% in 2013.
  • On the other hand, we expect that Banglalink's market share will be increasing from 21.6% in 2008 to 24.8% in 2013.
  • We forecast that TM International will have 18.4% of total subscribers and Warid will have 11.7% of total subscribers by the end of 2013.
ARPU levels in Bangladesh will be rising from 2009 to 2013
  • Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase from USD 3.54 to USD 4.77 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
  • Our model predicts that Banglalink's monthly ARPU will increase from USD 2.99 in 2008 to USD 3.70 in 2013, and GrameenPhone's monthly ARPU will increase from USD 3.81 in 2008 to USD 5.48 in 2013.
Banglalink's EBITDA margin will be improving over the next several years
  • Our model forecasts that EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 37.2% in 2Q.2009, up from 4.8% in 2Q.2008.
  • On the other hand, we expect that GrameenPhone's EBITDA margin will be higher at approximately 40.9% in 2013.
Please note: this is delivered as a Excel file.

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