4Q09 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 12.7 million mobile subscribers in Austria in 2013 with mobilkom austria taking 43.7% subscriber market share : Market Research Report

4Q09 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 12.7 million mobile subscribers in Austria in 2013 with mobilkom austria taking 43.7% subscriber market share

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 4, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group); T-Mobile International AG; Connect Austria; Drei (For Drei, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *; MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *; MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *; SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *; SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD); * Available only for mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group) and T-Mobile International AG

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Austria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Austrian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Austria include: mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group), T-Mobile International AG, Connect Austria, and Drei. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Stable subscriber growth continues in Austria's mobile operator space+7.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels continue to decline across operators in AustriaThe industry average ARPU growth rate of -9.9% in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber remain at approximately 200 minutes per month-1.0% industry-wide MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth at mobilkom austria and T-Mobile in the latest quarter+2.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Austria to reach 12.7 million in 2013

According to our forecasting model, total wireless subscriber accounts in Austria will increase from 10.6 million in 2008 to 12.7 million in 2013.
mobilkom austria will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Austria. We forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 4.49 million in 2008 to approximately 5.55 million in 2013.
T-Mobile will remain to be the second largest operator with 3.43 million subscribers in 2013.
Connect Austria and Drei will have the third and fourth places with 2.30 million and 1.42 million subscribers respectively in 2013.

mobilkom austria's market share will rise and that of T-Mobile will fall over the next five years

Our model predicts that T-Mobile's subscriber market share will decline from 32.2% in 2008 to 27.0% in 2013.
Instead, we expect that mobilkom austria will see its market share increase from 42.6% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2013.
Also, we forecast that Drei's market share will increase from 5.8% to 11.2% while Connect Austria's share decreases from 19.5% to 18.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

ARPU levels in Austria will decline from 2009 to 2013

Our model predicts that ARPU declines in Austria will continue over the next five years with the industry average ARPU reaching €20.81 in 2013.
At the operator level, we expect that mobilkom austria will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country in 2013 at €21.91 per month.
In comparison, we forecast that ARPUs at T-Mobile and Connect Austria will be lower at €21.00 and €17.89 respectively in 2013.

EBITDA margins at T-Mobile and Connect Austria will decline slightly over the next several years

We expect that mobilkom austria will continue to enjoy a higher level of EBITDA margin than T-Mobile and Connect Austria. We forecast that mobilkom austria's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase slightly from 36.0% in 2008 to 36.4% in 2013.
Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at T-Mobile and Connect Austria will be declining over the next five years to reach 25.3% and 24.5% respectively in 2013.

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4Q09 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 12.7 million mobile subscribers in Austria in 2013 with mobilkom austria taking 43.7% subscriber market share

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Abstract