|
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Oct. 30, 2009 - 52 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Brighter Economic Outlook, But Risks Remain
- Chapter 1 : Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Ratings
- Domestic Politics
- SPLM United Front: Key Implications
- The ex-rebel SPLM’s newly united front with other opposition factions in Sudan increases its bargaining power with the
- ruling National Congress Party, and may ultimately bolster its prospects for securing a successful pro-secession vote in
- oil-rich South Sudan in 2011.
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Foreign Policy
- US Relations Warm As Uganda Ties Falter
- President al-Bashir’s ruling NCP appears to be reaping benefits from an amelioration in the Darfur conflict, in terms of
- its relationship with Washington and consequent bargaining power with existing rebel groups and South Sudan’s ex-rebels.
- Chapter 2 : Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Ratings
- Economic Activity
- Growth Outlook Boosted By Improved Oil Prospects
- We have revised upwards our forecasts for real GDP growth to 4.3% in 2009 and 6.1% in 2010, from 3.2% and 2.4%
- respectively.
- Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Fiscal Policy
- Fiscal Accounts To Remain Under Pressure
- We expect Sudan’s fiscal accounts to stay in the red over the coming years, forecasting a deficit of SDG5.1bn (3.7% of
- GDP) in 2009 followed by SDG4.3bn (2.8% of GDP) in 2010.
- Table: FISCAL POLICY
- Balance Of Payments
- C/A Deficit Narrowing, Aided By Oil
- We are forecasting a current account deficit for Sudan of US$3.0bn (5.1% of GDP) in 2009, narrowing to US$1.7bn
- (2.5% of GDP) in 2010. Oil exports will be a key driver of this narrowing of the deficit.
- Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
- Regional Outlook
- Assessing The Real Effects Of The Growth Trajectory
- An examination of real GDP per capita - as opposed to nominal GDP per capita - reveals interesting trends in real wealth
- and living standards in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Chapter 3 : 10-Year Forecast
- The Sudanese Economy To 2019
- Secession A Key Risk For Long-Term Growth
- There is strong economic growth potential in the non-oil sector, but the uncertainties surrounding devolution and
- secession generate risks for many variables, particularly the fiscal accounts.
- Table: Long-Term Macroeco nomic Forecasts
- Chapter 4 : Special Report
- The World’s Fiscal Conundrum
- Table: WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE INDICATORS
- Table: WORLD GOVERNMENT REVENUE INDICATORS
- Table: WORLD FISCAL BALANCE INDICATORS
- Chapter 5 : Business Environment
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
- Business Environment Outlook
- Institutions
- TABLE: BMI BUSINESS & OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS
- TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS
- Infrastructure
- TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUA LITY
- Market Orientation
- table: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUA L FDI INFLOWS
- TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS
- TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
- Operational Risk
- Chapter 6 : BMI Global Assumptions
- Global Assumptions
- TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
- TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH
- Table: COMMODITY PRICES
AbstractSudan’s long-term economic prospects have improved markedly in recent months. Since our lastquarterly Sudan Business Forecast Report we have revised upward our estimate for real GDPgrowth in 2009 to 4.3% from 3.2% previously, primarily thanks to the broad uptrend in oil pricesand sustained period of global risk appetite seen over March-September 2009. Moreover, we haveraised our forecasts for growth in the subsequent years. Growth is expected to come in at 6.1%in 2010, and average 5.1% annually over 2011-2014. The political backdrop remains worrying,however. The risks are rising ahead of national elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendumon the secession of South Sudan in 2011.
T he ex-rebel SPLM’s newly united front with other opposition factions in Sudan increases itsbargaining power with the ruling National Congress Party (NC P) and may ultimately bolster itsprospects for securing a successful pro-secession vote in oil-rich South Sudan in 2011. However,as the stakes have risen during the last two years of post-war transition, nothing is guaranteed.
Things are looking more positive for foreign relations, though. President al-Bashir’s ruling NC Pappears to be reaping benefits from an amelioration in the situation in Darfur, in terms of itsrelationship with Washington and consequent bargaining power with existing rebel groups andSouth Sudan’s ex-rebels.
On the economic front, our growth outlook has brightened significantly thanks to improved prospectsfor oil production. Previously the sector was expected to begin contracting in 2010, but BMI’s oiland gas analysts are now forecasting a continued expansion of output over 2009-2014, thanksto enhanced oil recovery programmes, which are achieving some degree of success with maturefields, the discovery of new reserves, and ongoing investment, especially from Asian companies.
Structural weaknesses remain in the economy, however, with twin current account and fiscal deficitsset to persist over the coming years.
A lthough Sudan’s business environment continues to be beset by poor infrastructure and highlevels of corruption, there are some signs of improvement. Ties with Egypt may be boosted sincethe Egyptian authorities are reportedly considering building a US$500mn rail link from the southernEgyptian city of Aswan to the Sudanese border town of Wadi Halfa. There is also hope that Washingtonmay, in time, lift some of its sanctions on Sudan - a move which has been recommendedby the US special envoy for Sudan, General Scott Gration.
Get Full Details About This Report >>
|
|
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
|
|
|
|
About MarketResearch.com
MarketResearch.com is an online aggregator selling over 250,000 market research reports, company profiles and country profiles from over 650 research firms. Our reports will provide you with the critical business and competitive intelligence you need for strategic planning and marketing research. Coverage includes the US, UK, Europe, Asia and global markets.
© MarketResearch.com 2009
|
