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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Oct. 30, 2009 - 52 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- The Moment Of Truth
- Chapter 1: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Ratings
- Domestic Politics I
- Elections In November? Unlikely
- The challenges which must be overcome before an election can be held in Côte d’Ivoire on November 29 are great, and
- we believe the poll date is likely to be again revised.
- Tab le: Politica l Overview
- Domestic Politics II
- Presidential Election: Key Views
- Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election, which is likely to occur soon, if not on November 29 as scheduled, is a tough one to
- call, with the three main candidates enjoying significant support.
- Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Ratings
- Economic Activity
- Political Stability Precondition To Faster Growth
- Strong cocoa harvests are expected to provide a significant boost to growth in 2009, and growth should continue to pick
- up in 2010 and 2011 if political stability returns.
- Tab le: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Monetary Policy
- Deflation A Short-Term Phenomenon
- After year-on-year inflation came in negative for the second month in a row in August, we have revised down our end-09
- inflation forecast to 0.2%, while simultaneously revising up our end-2010 forecast to 4.6%.
- Table: MONETARY POLICY
- Balance of Payments
- Deficit Widens As Growth Accelerates
- Côte d’Ivoire’s current account deficit is forecast to widen from 1.7% of GDP in 2009 to 5.2% by 2013, but this will
- primarily be due to invigorated demand for imports on the back of stronger growth.
- Tab le: CURRENT ACCOUNT
- External Debt
- Attractive If Politics Stabilise
- As part of Côte d’Ivoire’s debt restructuring, the country is offering a new bond in exchange for six defaulted Brady bonds.
- table: DEBT INDICATORS
- Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
- The Ivoirian Economy To 2019
- Economic Recovery Contingent On Political Stability
- Barring a collapse in political stability, we believe that Côte d’Ivoire’s economy is likely to recover noticeably over the next
- 10 years, thanks to the country’s dominant primary sector and IMF support.
- Tab le: Long-Term Mac roeconomic Forecasts
- Chapter 4: Special Report
- The World’s Fiscal Conundrum
- Bleeding Red Ink Across The Globe
- Tab le: WORLD GOVER NMENT EXPENDITURE INDICATORS
- Tab le: WORLD GOVER NMENT REVENUE INDICATORS
- Tab le: WORLD FISCAL BALANCE INDICATORS
- Chapter 5: Business Environment
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
- Business Environment Outlook
- TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS
- Institutions
- TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS
- Infrastructure
- Market Orientation
- TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS
- table: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLO WS
- TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
- Operational Risk
- Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
- Global Assumptions
- TABLE: GLO BAL ASSUMPTIONS
- TABLE: GLO BAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GRO WTH
- Tab le: COMMODITY PRICES
AbstractElections are coming to Côte d’Ivoire soon, and along with them the chance to address the chronicpolitical instability that has crippled economic growth for nearly a decade. While we believe furtherdelays will likely push the actual election date past the scheduled November 29, we are optimisticthe polls will still occur within weeks or months after that. If the polls bring a consensus government(which is not guaranteed), we believe economic growth could finally pick up, with the largeagriculture and transport sectors leading the way. Faster growth will, in turn, put upward pressure onthe inflation rate, and also increase demand for imports, weighing on the current account deficit.
When the presidential election does occur, there are three main candidates who each have a realisticchance of victory. More important than the policy platforms of the candidates and, indeed, perhapseven more important than the candidates themselves, will be the conduct of the elections, whichmust be peaceful, credible and accepted by all major groups if political stability is to be gained.
With none of the three main candidates a clear favourite, whoever wins will need to reach out tothe losing side in order to help bring the country back together.
Much of our view over the next few years is premised on the successful completion of presidentialelections in the coming year. If political stability returns, it is expected to lead to a recovery ininvestment, which should push up headline growth, though perhaps at the expense of a greatercurrent account deficit and higher inflation rate (itself boosted by rising commodity prices). Meanwhile,the country continues the process of clearing its large external debt load and some recentlyrestructured debt may prove attractive in the future, provided elections occur in the coming year.Côte d’Ivoire’s business environment remains very weak, as reflected in most recently releasedWorld Bank Ease of Doing Business rankings and the Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s annual governanceindex. The country held its near bottom position in the Ibrahim index, reflecting weak rule of law,high corruption, and low development, but actually fell five places in the World Bank’s business rankings,to 168th out of 183 countries. The country continues to suffer from the administrative hurdlesof divided governance, and a tenuous security situation. Furthermore, the country’s infrastructure,which was once among the best in the region, has suffered from years of underinvestment.
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