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Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 30, 2009 - 52 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractVietnam possesses an army with an abundance of operational experience and a strong level of politicalsupport for receiving military assistance. As a result, it has the potential to be a dominant regional playerin both security and defence. Despite this, the largest inhibiting factor in industry development is a lack ofinfrastructure to produce technologically advanced equipment. Vietnam is far behind the leaderseconomically - and thus lacks the industrial and scientific base to successfully research and develop acredible defence industry. Until now the industry has relied on reverse engineering, however, futurepurchases may include technology transfers which could allow them to jump ahead generations intechnology.In view of the rapidly deteriorating external outlook, the 2009 GDP forecast has been downgraded from5% to 2.9% and simultaneously the 2010 forecast has been downgraded from 7% to 5%. Growth in 2008was largely held up by the resilience of the export sector in the face of a domestic economy plagued byspiralling inflation and fiscal and monetary tightening. However, like many Asian countries H208resulted in Vietnamese exports falling from US$6.6bn in July to US$3.8bn in December. Currentexpectations of a more prolonged downturn in global demand could seriously shake the export focusedHanoi growth model. The long running territorial dispute over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea has escalated recentlyon the news that China announced plans to boost patrols in the area. The Islands have economic andpolitical significance as the surrounding waters are valuable fishing grounds and are believed to containlarge undersea oil and gas deposits. The years of strong economic growth have resulted in an extended period of political stability in Vietnamas this high economic growth has brought material gains, however, with deteriorating economicconditions looming we see most of the political risk in the rising number of layoffs in labour intensivemanufacturing in the wake of the slumping export sector. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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