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Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 30, 2009 - 56 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Philippines is gearing up for its upcoming presidential and congressional elections in May 2010 amidincreasing political uncertainty. The ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD will be facing a resurgent opposition,benefiting from the revival of democratic fervour stemming from the death of former President CorazonAquino, who was instrumental in overthrowing the despotic Marcos administration via the ‘People’sPower’ revolution in 1986. However, fragmented opposition with multiple presidential contenders willprobably mean that the incumbents, Lakas-Kampi-CMD, will remain in power. Meanwhile, the economyis expected to register positive growth in 2009 and 2010, respectively, on the back of robust remittancesand effective fiscal measures, despite a languishing external environment.Following the death of democracy icon and former President Corazon Aquino in August 2009, we expectSenator Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III - the only son of the revered stateswoman - to mount a formidablechallenge to the incumbent Lakas-Kampi-CMD camp in the forthcoming presidential elections in May2010. Aquino, who belongs to the opposition Liberal Party, announced his candidacy on September 92009 after former standard-bearer Mar Roxas stepped down in favour of him. Nevertheless, the existenceof other popular contenders - especially Senator Manuel Villar who has been topping recent opinion polls- may split opposition votes, allowing the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD to reclaim power next year. The economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q209, which wasstronger than the 0.6% growth registered in the preceding quarter. Notably, growth in privateconsumption - which comprises more than 75% of real GDP - accelerated to 2.2% from 1.3% in Q109,boosted by robust growth in remittances. Indeed, remittance inflows increased by 2.9% y-o-y in January-June 2009 to reach a record US$8.5bn, led by a surge in non-US contributions. Going forward, we expectstrong remittances and ample fiscal stimulus to push the economy towards a somewhat higher growthtrajectory, therefore revising our 2009 and 2010 growth forecasts upwards to 1.5% and 2.6% respectively. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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