Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2009 : Market Research Report

Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 28, 2009 - 93 Pages

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Japan Wireline SWOT; Japan Mobile SWOT; Japan Political SWOT; Japan Economic SWOT; Business Environment; Asia; Japan
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings: Industry Forecast Scenario; Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013: ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013: Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013: Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013: Market Data Analysis; Mobile; Mobile Market Overview
Table: Japan Mobile Market Share, June 2009
Table: Japan Mobile Net Additions Market Share, Q209: ARPU
Table: Japanese ARPUs Q207-Q209 (JPY/month)
Table: Japanese Voice ARPUs Q207-Q209 (JPY/month)
Table: Japanese Data ARPUs Q207-Q209 (JPY/month): 3G
Table: 3G Mobile Subscriber Market - Q209
Table: 3G Mobile Net Additions (Q209): LTE; Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins: Mobile Content; Regional Outlook
Table: Asia VAS Market By Service (US$bn): Country Outlook; Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2008-2009: Mobile Operator Data; Japan Mobile Market Overview; NTT DoCoMo; KDDI; Softbank Mobile; Fixed Line
Table: Fixed-Line Operators - June 2009: Internet; FTTH; NTT East And NTT West: ADSL Vs FTTH ('000); Number Of Broadband Subscriptions By Technology Type (mn); DSL; ARPU; VoIP Services; WiMAX; Wireline Developments
Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments: Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities In Japan: Competition
Table: Licence Categories
Table: Notification Categories: Licensing; Interconnection; Industry Developments; Company Monitor
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Service Type (Eurmn)
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Region (Eurmn)
Table: Alcatel-Lucent: A Selection Of Major Contracts: Competitive Landscape; Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players: Japan Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (FY end March 31 unless stated): Selected Profiles - Operators; Appendix; Key Players; Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview: Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview: Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview: Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030: Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012: BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms: BMI Methodology; Business Environment Ratings Methodology; Ratings Overview; Weighting
Table: Weighting: Indicators
Table: Indicators: BMI Forecast Modelling & Sourcing; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Telecommunications Industry Forecast Table; Key Indicators; Business Environment Ratings; Sources

Abstract

Around 90% of the mobile market in Japan was made up of 3G subscribers at the end of June 2009.

Crossing over the 100mn mark for the first time during Q209 to reach 102.065mn, there were 11.233mnnet additions in the year. This compared favourably to the 4.761mn net additions reported in the overallmobile market in the same period of the previous year.

Heavy discounts and aggressive promotions, as well as the introduction of new methods of handsetrepayment in instalments, are responsible for the growth occurring across Japan’s already mature mobilesector. This, combined with operators shutting down their 2G networks in the next few years, and theacquisition of mobile content - NTT DoCoMo acquired a 35% stake in mobile video vendorPacketVideo in July 2009 and, at the time of writing, plans to make a bid for Germany’s Net MobileGroup, a distributor of mobile content - is propelling the robust growth being experienced in the 3Gmarket. It is hoped that these efforts will aid the launch of 4G networks, with the leading four operatorsexpected to launch trials in 2010/11.

Sadly, however, efforts made on the part of operators to encourage greater mobile content adoption arenot translating positively into ARPUs. BMI’s newly introduced forecast indicator for ARPUs shows that,during 2008, this had fallen by 7.9% in the year to reach a market average of JPY5,230, and on the backof further declines witnessed during 2007 of 9.5% y-o-y. Behind this has been the heavy tariff discountsand earlier price wars fought between operators to raise their market shares. This does not appear to beshowing any signs of abating, and while BMI forecasts further declines for 2009, we expect this trend toslow in the coming three to four years, as more and more non-voice data makes its way to the market.

The affordability of mobile services, and customers looking to cut down outgoings - even though it hasnow emerged out of recession - has damaged the fixed-line market. At the end of June 2009, there were atotal of 42.608mn lines, led by NTT East and NTT West on 17.583mn and 17.966mn, respectively. Bothoperators, sister units of NTT Group, have witnessed falling lines, and as the dominant operators, thishas translated into overall declines in the fixed-line market. It is not only the affordability of mobileservices that has damaged the fixed line, so, too, has VoIP services, so that the fixed-line sector hascontracted faster than BMI had expected.

In view of this, we have revised our forecasts. We expect the market to contract by 12.9% in 2009, in linewith trends witnessed during 2008 and 2007. By the end of this year, there are estimated to be 43.561mnfixed-line subscribers and a penetration rate of 34.2%, before falling further to 36.1mn by 2013 and apenetration rate of 30.7%.

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Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Table of Contents

Abstract