Italy Telecommunications Report Q4 2009 : Market Research Report

Italy Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 28, 2009 - 98 Pages

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Italy Mobile SWOT; Italy Wireline Market SWOT; Italy Political SWOT; Italy Economic SWOT; Business Environment; Western Europe; Italy
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings: Industry Forecast Scenario; Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts: Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts: Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts: Market Data Analysis; Mobile
Table: Italy Mobile Market, Q209
Table: Italy Mobile Market, Net Additions (Q209): Subscriber Divisions; ARPU
Table: Italian MVNOs: 3G; Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins: Mobile Content; Regional Outlook; Country Outlook; HSDPA And HSUPA; Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services: Mobile Operator Data
Table: Italy Mobile Market Overview
Table: Telecom Italia
Table: Vodafone
Table: WIND
Table: 3 Italia: Fixed Line
Table: Italian Fixed-Line Market, Q208-Q209: Local-loop unbundling (LLU)
Table: Telecom Italia OLO Accesses, Q208-Q209: VoIP; Functional Separation; Broadband
Table: Italian Broadband Market, Q208-Q209: Alternative Broadband Operators; Broadband Infrastructure; WiMAX
Table: Wireline Developments: Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments; Italy: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities; Legislation And Market Liberalisation; Licensing And Spectrum; Industry Developments; Telecom Italia Fined EUR600,000; Tiscali To Sell UK Unit To Carphone Warehouse; Wind Looking To Restructure Debts; 3G Frequencies Awarded; Telecom Italia Sees Further Pressure To Spin-off Network; Competitive Landscape; Key Players
Table: Key Players - Italy Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators, 2006-2008 (US$mn): Company Monitor
Table: Nokia Financial Highlights (EURmn): Nokia's Position In The Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn); Nokia's Position In the Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn); Nokia Siemens Networks Net Sales By Geographic Area (EURmn)
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks Recent Contract Wins In Western Europe: Profiles; Appendix:; Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview; Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview: Mobile; Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview: Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview: Telecoms Business Environment Ratings Methodology; Ratings Overview; Weighting; Weighting; Indicators; Indicators; Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030: Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012: BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms: BMI Telecommunications Forecasting & Sourcing; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Telecommunications Industry Forecasting:; Key Indicators; Business Environment Ratings; Sources

Abstract

BMI’s latest update on Italy’s telecommunications market contains new subscriber data which show howthe country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony and broadband internet markets developed in the first sixmonths of 2009. One of the most notable developments in the mobile market has been the contraction inthe number of mobile subscribers, particularly in the second quarter of 2009. The latest figures show thatItaly’s mobile customer base contracted by 2.2% in H109, following falls of 0.4% in Q109 and 1.8% inQ2. By the end of June, Italy’s mobile customer base was down 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), andpenetration had fallen to 139.4% from its peak of 142.7% in December 2008.

Italy’s shinking mobile customer base stems from the ongoing deduction of inactive prepaid users bymobile market leaders Telecom Italia and Vodafone Italy. The deduction of inactive prepaid customersreflects the saturated nature of the market and the need for these operators to improve their subscribermixes by moving prepaid users to postpaid contracts. The discounting strategies of Telecom Italia andVodafone are expected to result in negative growth in 2009; by the end of the year, we predict thatpenetration will have fallen back below 137%. In the event that Italy’s two smaller mobile operators,WIND and 3 Italia, join their larger rivals in discounting inactive customers, a much steeper drop insubscriber numbers could be seen.

Meanwhile, the first six months of 2009 saw extremely weak growth for Italy’s broadband sector. InH109, the total number of Italian broadband connections grew by 3.2% to reach 11.775mn; the number ofconnections grew by just 1% in the first quarter of the year, the growth rate rising to 2.1% in Q209. BMIbelieves that the economic slowdown is partly to blame for the weak broadband growth. However, wealso attribute the performance of the market to the slow speed at which broadband network infrastructuresare being extended to smaller towns and rural parts of the country. We have reduced our full-year growthexpectations for the sector, and now envisage a 7% expansion for the year; by the end of 2009, we predictthat Italy’s broadband penetration rate will have reached 20.8%, up from 19.5% at the end of 2008. In thelonger term, however, we predict that 2010 and 2011 will see stronger growth rates for the sector. Thenetwork sharing agreement signed in August between broadband operator Fastweb and alternativeoperator WIND is exemplary of the sort of developments which BMI believes will result in strongerbroadband growth in the latter years of our forecast. Among other things, the agreement between Fastweband WIND concerns investments in fibre-optic infrastructure.

An improved country risk rating is behind Italy’s greatly improved position in this quarter’s set ofBusiness Environment Rankings for Western Europe. The higher country risk score reflects our slightlymore upbeat view of the way Italy’s economy will develop in 2009. We also predict that economicgrowth will return to positive territory in 2010 with a 0.2% real expansion.

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Italy Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Table of Contents

Abstract